Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 57 to 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 58. Light winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 61 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 84. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 56 to 61. Light winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 61 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 60. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 52 to 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A pattern featuring daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes will prevail across most of the state through the middle of next week. Expect afternoon clouds and a few showers over mauka and interior areas each day, with a few mainly windward showers each night. A weakening front may increase clouds and showers Monday night through Wednesday of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 2100 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending southwestward to a location near or just north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is weak enough for land breezes across the western islands, while light to moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions, primarily due to high clouds moving through. Radar imagery shows a few showers over Maui County and the Big Island, with rain free conditions elsewhere.
The ridge of high pressure will remain nearly stationary near or just north of Kauai today. Light and variable winds will persist over Kauai and Oahu allowing for sea breeze development, while light to moderate trades hold over the eastern end of the state. The high will then settle southward and linger over the island chain this weekend through the middle of next week. This will result in an extended period of light and variable winds featuring daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes statewide.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week, with no significant rainfall expected. A few showers are expected to develop over the island interiors each afternoon, while nights and mornings will be mostly dry aside from a few mainly windward focused showers. A weakening front approaching from the northwest could bring a slight increase in showers Monday night through Wednesday of next week.

Aviation

As a surface ridge remains in the vicinity of the islands, winds will continue in the light to moderate range statewide. And many areas will see daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Showers will mainly develop in the afternoon and evening hours over interior and mauka sections, though in most locales VFR will hold sway.
No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are anticipated through the day.

Marine

Light and variable winds are here to stay through early next week over the Kauai and Oahu waters as the surface ridge remains in the area. For the eastern end of the state, moderate to fresh east- southeast winds will hold today, then drop off into the light category through the weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will remain around to above average through the weekend as overlapping, west-northwest swells arrive and move through in response to the ongoing active pattern across the northern Pacific. The west-northwest swell that arrived Thursday will hold today before easing into the weekend. Seas associated with this swell will hover around the Small Craft Advisory level of 10 ft across the exposed waters, which will likely continue through Saturday. Latest observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest continue run above predicted levels this morning, with the peak energy holding in the 12-13 second bands. This energy extrapolated to the exposed north and west facing shores supports the High Surf Advisory continuing today.
As this swell slowly eases into tonight, the next pulse associated with a compact, hurricane-force low that crossed the Date Line around 500 NM north of Midway earlier Thursday is forecast to arrive late tonight into Saturday, which will drive the surf back toward warning levels (seas likely exceeding the Small Craft Advisory level of 10 ft over exposed waters) for exposed coasts of the smaller islands. A gradual downward trend is then expected late Sunday through Monday, as this source moves out.
For the extended period (next week), expect the winter mode to continue as a broad area low pressure, encompassing much of the far northwest Pacific, becomes established this weekend into next week. Guidance depicts the associated fetch expanding eastward within the 290 and 310 degree directional bands relative to the islands, driving the seas to around 25 ft. If this materializes, expect an upward trend in surf/swell locally through the day Tuesday, which could persist into the second half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov