Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 65. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 59. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Partly sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 57 to 62. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 59. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 50 to 62. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A series of fronts approaching and stalling out northwest of the islands will bring fluctuating trade winds for much of the week. Light to moderate trades should generally prevail, although the trades are forecast to ease up enough to allow for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in many areas Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Fairly dry weather will continue through the work week, with showers favoring mainly windward slopes and coasts, particularly during nights and mornings. A more typical showery trade wind pattern may return next weekend, with trades strengthening to moderate and locally breezy levels.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a pair of fronts are located well to the west and northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu. A ridge axis extends southwestward from the high to a position just north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, with dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus revolves around the trade wind trends during the next several days.
The pair of fronts northwest of the state will merge northwest of the islands today, then move southeastward and closer to the islands tonight before stalling out around 150-200 miles northwest of Kauai on Monday. Moderate trades are expected statewide today, although they'll likely tip a bit southeasterly over the western islands this afternoon. The trades will ease tonight, with a period of light and variable winds expected Monday and Monday night, allowing for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in most areas. A very progressive pattern over the central Pacific will keep the trade winds fluctuating through the remainder of the work week, with moderate trades expected Tuesday and Thursday, with lighter trades forecast Wednesday and Friday, particularly over the western islands. Moderate to breezy trades may return next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, dry and stable conditions will keep showers sparse and confined to mainly windward slopes and coasts today. The airmass moistens up ever so slightly over the eastern end of the state tonight, which will likely bring an increase in trade wind showers. A disturbance aloft will slide southeast through the area on Monday, which could bring a few more showers to interior and mauka areas, but coverage is still expected to be minimal. Drier than normal weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the work week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings. A return to a more normal showery trade wind pattern could return next weekend.

Aviation

Early this morning, surface high pressure is located far northeast of the state with an associated surface ridge extending just north of Kauai. This will keep E/ESE trade winds light to moderate for the next several days while a series of fronts approach the island chain but then stall northwest of the state. Moisture is expected to remain rather limited throughout the forecast period, with mostly dry VFR conditions prevailing at most locations. Limited shower activity will be confined to east- facing slopes and coasts with only brief MVFR ceilings possible in any showers that do develop across windward locations.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated today or tonight.

Marine

Moderate to fresh trade winds will ease and shift southeasterly over most waters today as surface high pressure north of the state moves to the northeast and its associated ridge moves toward the islands. An approaching front will push the ridge near Kauai Monday as a front dissipates just north of the state, leading to gentle winds over most of the coastal waters. A surface high passing to the north may bring another episode of trade winds mid-week, before a ridge is once again pushed near the islands for period of light winds.
The current northwest swell which peaked yesterday has continued to lower. Surf is now below advisory level along north facing shores, so the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. The swell will continue a slow decline through Monday. A similarly-sized northwest swell will arrive Tuesday, followed by another Friday, both likely producing advisory level surf for north, and potentially west, facing shores.
A small south-southwest swell will drop later today, with minimal south shore surf by Tuesday. East shore surf will remain below the seasonal normal, though a slight increase is possible during the middle of the week with the boost in trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov