Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will prevail today, edge upward tonight, then become locally breezy from late Tuesday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka sections of Maui County and the Big Island today, with windward Oahu and Kauai seeing an increase in showers tonight and Tuesday. Dry and stable conditions are then expected Tuesday night through next weekend, with limited trade wind showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located around a hundred miles northeast of Maui, with another trough a few hundred miles southeast of the Big Island. Meanwhile, a ridge axis is positioned around 200 miles north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is producing light to moderate north-northeasterly winds across the western islands and light to moderate east- northeasterly trades over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions over windward areas, with clear to partly cloudy skies in leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers affecting windward areas of Maui County and the Big Island, isolated showers over windward Oahu, and with very little if any shower activity on Kauai. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next couple days.
The surface trough northeast of the islands will weaken and gradually dissipate as it shifts slowly westward today through Tuesday. Light to moderate trades with local sea breezes can be expected today. The trades will edge upward slightly tonight, then become locally breezy Tuesday afternoon. Surface ridging north of the islands will then remain the dominant weather feature through Saturday, with moderate to locally breezy trades prevailing. A front approaching from the northwest may weaken the trades for the tail end of the upcoming weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of clouds and showers on the southwest periphery of the surface trough will move very slowly westward during the next couple days. The shower focus will remain over mainly windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island today, with fewer showers expected over Oahu and even less over Kauai. As the trough dampens out tonight and Tuesday, we should see showers disperse more uniformly across the state, with windward and mauka areas remaining the main targets. A drier and more stable airmass will then build over the islands Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend, with limited trade wind showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings.

Aviation

A weak surface trough lingering in the area will support the light to moderate north-northeast winds continuing over Kauai and Oahu, with east to southeast trades holding over the eastern end of the state today. A return of moderate to breezy easterly trades is expected by tonight as the trough diminishes and high pressure builds to the north. Although VFR conditions will prevail through the 24-hr TAF period, late night/early morning clouds and showers focusing over some windward locations could translate to brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A weak low level trough persists over the local waters, causing northeast winds over the western part of the state and east winds from Molokai eastward. More typical trade winds will become reestablished by Tuesday and will strengthen through Wednesday as high pressure builds in to our north. Winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island Tuesday through Thursday. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds are expected Friday with the high becoming centered far northeast of the area by then.
The current northwest swell will continue to lower through the day. A smaller northwest swell is on tap during the Tuesday through Wednesday time period. A much larger, and rather long period, northwest swell is expected to fill in Thursday, then peak Thursday night and early Friday before lowering gradually over the weekend. This swell will easily exceed advisory levels, and will likely reach low-end warning levels, during the peak of the swell. Small, mainly background south swells are expected through this weekend and on through most of next week. Short period choppy surf will remain small along east facing shores over the next couple of days, then pick up beginning around Wednesday and remain elevated into next weekend as trade winds strengthen over and upwind of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov