Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and windy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. A 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows around 62. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 56 to 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will prevail into the weekend, then may weaken somewhat Sunday into next week. A mostly dry weather pattern is expected, with passing low clouds leading to just a few brief windward showers.

Discussion

A surface ridge several hundred miles N of the islands will support moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. A front passing to the N may weaken the ridge from Sunday into early next week, bringing the potential for lighter winds. A strong mid- and upper-level ridge building over the area will maintain a strong subsidence inversion near 5000', and PWAT is expected to be less than an inch through the weekend. Therefore, there is a very low chance of wetting rainfall. Any showers that do develop will be brief, favoring windward slopes during nights and mornings, with the potential for an afternoon shower over the Big Island leeward slopes. Long range guidance keeps the ongoing dry weather pattern in place through most of next week. A Drought Information Statement (DGTHFO) issued a couple of weeks ago highlights the worsening drought, despite one of the wettest Decembers of the last 50 years.

Aviation

A surface ridge far north of the state will continue to produce moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds today. The atmosphere remains relatively stable and rather dry across the area. Low clouds and showers transported by the low-level trade wind flow will continue to move over some windward facing sections. There may be brief periods of MVFR conditions due to lower ceilings along some windward slopes, especially through mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail across most of the state into this evening.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence above FL250 over the islands from Molokai and Lanai to the Big Island. Conditions may improve over the eastern end of the state later today, so this AIRMET may be cancelled. In addition, VAD wind profiles suggest that moderate low-level turbulence may be occurring leeward of the mountains due to the locally strong trade winds. Therefore, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for TEMPO moderate turbulence below 9 thousand feet south through west of the higher terrain across the entire island chain.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds have returned and will continue through the second half of the week, which supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing over the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island. This advisory will be expanded to all exposed waters late Thursday through Saturday as a west-northwest swell arrives and moves through. Trades are forecast to trend down late in the weekend as a weakness in the ridge forms in response to a front passing to the north.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will hold today, then ease by tonight as a medium-period northwest swell moves through.
A more significant west-northwest swell associated with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds that has been expanding eastward toward the Date Line from Japan/Kurils since Monday will arrive Thursday and continue into the weekend before easing. Recent satellite data and SOFAR drifter buoys within the fetch region reflected these winds with wave height numbers coming in between 35 and 50 ft – several feet above the predicted levels. Guidance supports surf reaching advisory levels late Thursday afternoon, then surging well above warning levels Thursday night through Saturday as it peaks and moves through. Heights should dip to advisory levels by Sunday on the back-end of the swell. Will continue to forecast swell heights coming in higher than predicted due to the aforementioned observations in the fetch region. If this evolves as predicted, the likelihood of some overwash onto our typical vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways will increase -with the best chance being centered around the peak daily high tide cycles around midnight for both Thursday and Friday nights.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy due to the trades that have returned.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov