Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for February 27, 2022

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Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 84. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. Light winds becoming west up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 68. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 62. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 53 to 65. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 80. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge north of the area will shift southward over the next few days as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will dissipate north of the area Monday and Tuesday. An upper trough will pass over the area late Wednesday through Thursday night. High pressure will begin to build back in northwest of the area Friday and Saturday.

Discussion

A high far northeast of the area has an associated ridge extending westward to a position several hundred miles north of the main Hawaiian Islands, driving moderate east to east southeast winds across local waters this morning. An upper ridge keeps our airmass rather stable, with inversion heights near 5000 feet. PW is low, less than an inch, but radar shows showers have increased overnight, mainly over water within increased low cloud cover, but also across windward slopes of Oahu and Maui.
Models show a front will approach the area over the next few days, pushing the ridge southward and causing winds across local waters to weaken. The front will stall and dissipate just north of the area Monday and Tuesday. Winds may be light enough for daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop across some areas. Models show a slight increase in moisture as the upper ridge shifts southward. Expect an increase in windward and mauka showers, with daytime heating increasing cloud and shower coverage over interior areas during the afternoon and evening hours.
An upper trough will move over the area late Wednesday through Thursday night. Increasing moisture, along with a less stable airmass, will increase chances for showers for most of the state. Winds will remain on the lighter side during the forecast period. A drier and more stable airmass is expected to move in from the west later Friday and Saturday, with winds becoming more northerly.

Aviation

Despite the mostly dry and stable pattern in place, expect periods with MVFR CIGS over windward and mauka areas through the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Easterly trades are light enough to support the land and sea breeze regime continuing for most sites.
AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration due to clouds and showers can't be ruled out by daybreak for some windward and mauka locations.

Marine

An approaching cold front passing just north of the state will weaken the ridge north of the islands through Tuesday. Another high pressure ridge will pass by far north of the Hawaii region from Tuesday into Wednesday, however trade wind speeds will remain in the light to moderate range through the period. Another cold front passes by north of the state next Wednesday, weakening the ridge and producing light and variable winds across the region on Wednesday and Thursday.
A large west-northwest swell will gradually decline into Monday and then hold through Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for exposed north and west facing shores. The HSA will hold today before dropping below advisory levels later tonight into Monday. Swell directions will shift from 310 degrees today, to 320 degrees Monday, and to 330 degrees by Tuesday. The forerunners of the next large, long period, northwest swell will likely arrive late Wednesday night, quickly building to HSA levels and possibly exceeding HSW thresholds by Thursday.
Surf heights will remain small along east facing shores with background surf heights along south facing shores expected to last through the week.
Winds and seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory thresholds and the advisory was cancelled.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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