Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 62 to 71. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Locally breezy and dry trade wind weather will continue today. Showers will be focused along windward slopes, and aside from a few afternoon showers on the South Kona slopes, leeward areas will remain dry. Trade winds will trend down tonight through midweek, and some moisture moving in from the southeast could boost rainfall chances for some locations. A dry trade wind pattern will return Thursday through Saturday.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the breezy easterly trades holding today, then easing tonight through midweek as a front passes to the north. A diffuse area of moisture will move up from the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday and cause an uptick in shower activity, mainly along southeast slopes of the Big Island and Maui. If the trades drop enough for leeward sea breezes to develop, all islands may have a chance of afternoon showers over leeward terrain on Wednesday. Though weaker, the ridge aloft will remain in place and likely keep any rainfall at moderate intensity.
A return to somewhat dry trade wind weather is due on Thursday as the enhanced moisture clears the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are showing a weak upper level trough moving in from the northwest. This feature could produce an increase in high clouds, but no other impacts to local weather are expected at this time.

Aviation

Fair weather conditions will continue today with a high pressure ridge north of the islands producing moderate to locally breezy trade winds. Isolated showers are possible mainly over windward and mountain areas.
Currently there are no AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A new northwest swell will continue to build this morning and peak during the day today, then lower gradually Tuesday through Wednesday. Latest buoy observations show a peak of 10 ft 14 seconds at buoy 51001. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for north and west facing shores of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai and north facing shores of Maui through tonight. A smaller and shorter period northwest swell is expected during the Wednesday night through Thursday night time period, followed by another small to moderate northwest swell towards the end of the week.
South facing shores will continue to experience small, mainly background south swells throughout the week. Short period choppy surf will remain on the small side through the week as trade winds remain on the lighter side over and upwind of the state.
High pressure north of the state will produce moderate to locally strong trade winds across the area today. As this high shifts east, winds will gradually decrease through the middle of the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through this afternoon. The above mentioned advisory level northwest swell will likely cause seas to exceed the 10 foot SCA threshold over exposed waters through Tuesday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov