Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 87. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 71. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 44 to 55. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate east to southeast trade winds will strengthen this afternoon and veer toward the east. Moisture moving in from the southeast will bring scattered showers across the state today with a drier trade wind pattern returning on Thursday. Trades will likely weaken on Sunday as a cold front approaches the state. This front could bring gusty northerly winds and showery weather during the first half of next week.

Discussion

Gentle to moderate east to east southeast breezes will gradually strengthen and veer back easterly this afternoon into Thursday as the front north of the state weakens and broad high pressure takes over the east Pacific.
Overnight, we did see some moderate rain showers impacting windward areas of the Big Island, Maui and Oahu. For today, we should see the moisture continue to spread toward the western end of the island chain with showers on the increase over Kauai and Oahu. Afternoon sea breezes will develop over select areas and will lead to afternoon showers over interior and leeward areas. Showers are expected to continue over windward Big Island and Maui today with a decrease in showers expected tonight into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in from the east. A drier than normal trade wind pattern is expected Thursday through Saturday, with some light passing showers over windward and mountain areas.
In the extended forecast, an approaching front will disrupt the trade winds Sunday into Monday. Although confidence remains low being this far out in time, we could see the front pass through the state with gusty northerly winds behind the front and showery conditions around Tuesday of next week. More details will follow as the week progresses and confidence increases.

Aviation

Strengthening easterly trade winds will expand westward across the islands through this afternoon, as a ridge of high pressure lingers northeast of the state. Weaker wind patterns across sheltered zones will continue the potential for diurnal circulations through tonight, with sea breeze development expected this afternoon generating clouds and isolated showers inland across most leeward zones. VFR conditions are expected at most locations throughout the forecast period, however periods of MVFR cigs continue within showers across mainly eastern portions of the state and Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern portions of state, especially sections of Big Island. Tempo mountain obscuration conditions may expand westward this afternoon in increasing moist trade wind flow.

Marine

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will transition to moderate to locally breezy trade winds today as a ridge of high pressure moves farther north of the state. With this change, a Small Craft Advisory will take effect by midday for the typically windy coastal zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds may weaken over the weekend and again veer southeast as a front approaches from the northwest.
The current northwest swell will only marginally decline and veer toward the north-northwest over the next day or two. A series of smaller northwest swells are expected Thursday through Saturday, with surf peaking below advisory levels. A larger northwest swell is possible early next week, with forerunners as early as Monday, that could raise surf to advisory levels along north and west facing shores through mid-week.
Surf along south facing shores is forecast to remain small, with only small background swells through the week. A small south swell is possible towards the middle of next week. East facing shores will have small, choppy surf through the week due to the local trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov