Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 84. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 66. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. East winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 64. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 66. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will weaken and become more easterly as high pressure to our north moves eastward. Embedded clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Lighter winds expected next week may allow additional clouds and showers to form over interior areas during afternoon and evening hours. A more typical trade wind weather pattern is expected to return later next week as a new high builds to our north.

Discussion

A high persists far north of the area while clouds and showers have decreased noticeably since last evening. Radar shows little or no shower activity over the islands, but isolated to scattered light showers are noted over water southeast of the Big Island and across waters northeast of Oahu and Maui County. Moderate trade winds dominate, and we expect little change in this overall pattern through this morning.
Models show the high will drift eastward through Monday, causing local trade winds to weaken and veer a bit to a more easterly direction. Winds may be light enough Monday through Wednesday for development of daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes across some areas. Another cloud band will drift southward over the west end of the island chain, likely increasing showers for Kauai and Oahu Sunday night and Monday. With the lighter winds Monday and Tuesday, some showers may also form over interior areas during the afternoon hours.
A weak upper trough will move over the area from the west Tuesday through Thursday, decreasing airmass stability. With the trade winds expected to remain on the lighter side, the best chances for showers will be during the afternoon and evening hours due to daytime heating and sea breeze convergence. Temperatures may become cold enough aloft for a few thunderstorms to form over interior areas of the Big Island during the afternoon hours each day. A more typical trade wind weather pattern is expected to return by Friday and Saturday as a new high builds in to our north.

Aviation

Trade winds will weaken to light to moderate levels today as sea breezes begin to develop over terrain sheltered leeward slopes of each island. A convergent cloud band will drift into Kauai and Oahu later this afternoon and evening enhancing clouds and showers for both islands into Monday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions will develop over these western islands in showers. Otherwise mostly VFR weather conditions are expected with clouds building over island mountain and interior sections during the day with brief showers favoring the afternoon hours.
AIRMET for Mountain Obscuration remains in effect for north and east slopes of the Big Island this morning. This AIRMET may expand to North through East sections of Kauai and Oahu later this afternoon and evening.

Marine

Light to moderate easterly winds are expected through the start of the week as a couple of fronts pass to the north. A return of fresh to strong trade winds is expected late in the week as high pressure builds to the north.
Surf along north facing shores will trend up today as a short- period, northerly pulse arrives and moves through. This should linger into Monday along exposed coasts as the swell direction shifts out of the north to northeast.
A long-period, northwest swell associated with a compact storm quickly lifting north-northeast around 1500 nm north-northwest of the islands will arrive late Monday, then peak Tuesday through midweek. Surf should remain below the advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores as it peaks.
For the long-range, guidance is advertising the active trend continuing as a broad area of gales setup over the far northwest Pacific near the western Aleutians focused at the islands within the 310-330 directional bands early this week. If this unfolds, expect a long-period, northwest swell later in the week that could drive surf heights to around advisory levels.
Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell moves out. A smaller pulse expected Monday should be enough to keep the surf from going flat through the first half of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will trend down today as the trades weaken. The aforementioned north-northeast swell expected early in the week will support small surf continuing for exposed east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov