Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers. Highs 72 to 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers. Highs 72 to 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 74. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through next week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Increasing moisture combined with an upper disturbance settling southward into the area will result in better windward shower coverage tonight through the weekend, with some occasionally reaching our dry leeward areas. A return of drier trade wind conditions is expected early next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the dry and breezy trade wind conditions holding today, with the best rainfall chances remaining over windward and mountain locations through the morning hours. A transition period is anticipated late tonight through the weekend as upper heights lower ahead of an approaching short wave trough. Added instability associated with this upper feature combined with increasing deep layer moisture (PWs climbing into the 1.4 to 1.8 inch range by Saturday – highest eastern end of the state) will translate to better rainfall chances. Showers may become heavy at times, with some making into our dry leeward areas where drought conditions persist. Although confidence is low given the expected shield of high clouds, a few afternoon thunderstorms can't be ruled out over Big Island slopes Saturday and Sunday.
A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is expected through the first half of the upcoming week as upper heights rise and some drier air moves in.

Aviation

With high pressure centered far northeast of the state, trade winds will remain in the moderate to breezy range today. Showers, with any accompanying MVFR conditions, will mainly affect windward and mauka areas. However, VFR will prevail over most sections most of the time.
An AIRMET continues in effect for low level turbulence to the lee of the mountains across the state.

Marine

High pressure northwest of the islands will keep moderate to strong trades in place through the forecast period, with only minor variations in strength. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect through 6 PM Sunday for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will keep east shore surf close to seasonal levels through Saturday. Surf will then lower below normal Sunday through the middle of next week as the trade winds diminish upstream of the island chain.
South shore surf will remain small through Friday, then trend up to slightly above normal levels Saturday through Monday as a new moderate size south swell moves through. Surf will then lower back to small levels Tuesday through Thursday.
A series of small northwest swells will move through the area today through the weekend, maintaining small surf along north facing shores. A larger, long period northwest swell associated with Typhoon Malakas, will arrive Monday night, giving a noticeable boost to surf along north and west facing shores Tuesday through late next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov