Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 63 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 62. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds across the region into early next week. Brief periods of showers will continue to focus mainly on windward and mountain areas, especially during the overnight to early morning hours. A few of the stronger showers will drift into leeward areas. An upper trough will keep periods of high clouds over the region.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning continues to show a narrow upper trough over the region on the water vapor channel. A subtropical jet stream south of the trough axis will keep periods of high level cirrus clouds drifting over the state through the week. These high clouds will enhance sunrise and sunset colors. Unstable low level clouds are drifting through each island on the trade winds and local radar currently shows scattered showers over coastal waters and most windward and mountain areas. Upper air soundings at 12Z this morning show subsidence temperature inversion heights around the 7000 to 8000 foot level, high enough to support continued passing showers.
A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaii region into the first half of next week. Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through the forecast period with brief passing showers mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. A 1030 MB high pressure center drifting from west to east within this ridge will cause wind directions to shift from northeasterly to easterly from Wednesday to Thursday. In the short range, more stable conditions will develop today over the Big Island with decreasing subsidence inversion heights, lowering cloud tops, and decreasing shower activity along the eastern slopes.
Forecast guidance continues to show an upper level low developing, within the upper trough, just west of Kauai on Thursday and Friday. This upper low may increase shower activity over the western half of the state by the end of the week. Precipitation and weather impacts will depend upon the final location and intensity of this upper level cold core low relative to the islands. Stay tuned.

Aviation

Breezy trade wind weather will prevail during the next 24 hours, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas and a few showers spilling into leeward communities from time to time. MVFR cigs and vsbys can be expected at times in windward areas, while VFR conditions should prevail in leeward locales.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. Conditions should improve over Maui County later this morning, but could linger through much of the day on Oahu and Kauai.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will be moving east and this will help maintain these ongoing fresh to locally strong trade winds the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all of the Hawaiian nearshore waters, with the exception of windward Big Island, through late tonight. The SCA will continue through Thursday night, especially for the windier areas around Maui County and south Big Island. This SCA will likely be extended for the windy areas into the weekend.
Surf along north and west facing shores will trend up through the day as a larger, longer period northwest swell from what was once Typhoon Malakas travels down around the state through Thursday. Surf associated with this swell will peak later today and Thursday and then gradually lower Friday as the north-shifting swell begins to fade late this week. The next moderate size north northwest swell will arrive this weekend. This swell will boost weekend north shore surf heights to levels similar to what will be experienced the next couple of days. A new south swell is forecast to arrive sometime Friday night or Saturday. This will pick south surf back up to more seasonable heights early next week. A slight increase in upstream trades later this week will increase weekend into early week shorter period east wind wave chop along many eastern facing exposures.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov