Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will persist over the next couple days then decrease to moderate speeds Wednesday into Thursday, then strengthen again this weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with a few showers spreading to leeward areas.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the islands will drive breezy trade winds over the next couple of days. Conditions will remain stable aloft and keep any orographic showers on the light side. 12Z soundings from early this morning showed a strong inversion between 6 and 7 kft with near normal precipitable waters values around 1.3 to 1.4 inches.
Infrared satellite shows scattered to numerous stratocumuls clouds moving east to west across the island chain this morning. Radar shows little overall precipitation with nearly all of it confined to windward and southeast Big Island. Cloud cover will maintain through the morning with breaks increasing by midday and then fill in again tonight. Clouds and showers will focus over windward slopes and mostly occur during the nighttime and early morning hours, with the diurnal minimum occurring midday. Leeward areas will stay mostly dry, with an occasional shower passing over the mountain ridges.
A weak surface trough will pass north of the state Wednesday and Thursday and weaken trade winds down to moderate speeds. A weak shortwave will move across the islands around the same time and bring some deeper layered clouds and enhancement to the trade wind showers. Both windward and leeward areas should see a slight boost to shower coverage during the second half of the week. Wind speeds will strengthen back to breezy levels next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue–the result of a strong ridge of high pressure far north of the Islands. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 8000 feet over and downwind of the terrain for all islands, and will likely remain in place through at least Monday evening.
Clouds and showers will favor mainly east and northeast facing slopes and coasts during the late night and early morning hours. Leeward sea breezes will focus shower activity over island interiors during the afternoon and early evening hours. The air mass below 07 kft remains stable: any precipitation in the lower elevations should be light and intermittent. The air mass above the inversion, however, is moderately unstable. Expect isolated moderate showers in towering cumulus over Big Island and Maui summits in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Marine

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue through Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward well to the north of the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through 6 PM Tuesday. The ridge north of the islands will weaken Wednesday and Thursday, causing a slight easing of the trades. The ridge will then strengthen Friday allowing the trades to trend stronger, with fresh to strong trades expected to fill back in for the weekend.
The current north-northwest will steadily lower today through Tuesday. Surf will then remain small along north facing shores Wednesday through Friday, with a small northwest swell bringing a slight boost over the weekend.
The current south swell will hold at elevated levels today, then gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf will hold near seasonal levels Thursday through Saturday, with another south swell giving surf a boost above normal levels on Sunday.
Rough trade wind swell will maintain east shore surf near seasonal average through Tuesday. East shore surf will follow trade wind trends, dropping slightly Wednesday and Thursday, then rebuilding Friday through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov