Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 73 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 73 to 82 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong trade winds will decrease slightly by Tuesday but remain breezy through the rest of the week. An upper trough will linger nearby through the end of the work week, keeping our airmass unstable and maintaining the potential for locally heavy downpours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the eastern end of the state through today. Drier trade wind weather is expected to return this coming weekend.

Discussion

A high persists far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands, with a weakening front located several hundred miles northwest of Kauai. The pressure gradient between the high and equatorial low pressure is driving breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. An upper trough resides over the central and eastern islands. Satellite loop shows broken to overcast low clouds piled up along windward areas of the islands, with mauka and leeward areas also cloud covered within the strong trades. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with the highest coverage over Oahu and Maui. Spots of deeper convection, possibly thunderstorms, persist across the Alenuihaha Channel and across waters northeast of Oahu and the islands of Maui County.
Models show the high will remain in place well to the north and northeast of the islands during the forecast period, keeping moderate to breezy trade winds in place. The upper trough will close off into an upper low in the vicinity of the central and eastern end of the state today, then linger over or near the islands through much of the work week. Persistent trades and instability will lead to wet and showery conditions across windward areas for much of the week, while elevated inversion heights will allow showers to reach leeward communities more regularly as well.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Maui County and the Big Island through this morning, and on the Big Island this afternoon. Depending on the timing and location of the upper low, the possibility for isolated thunderstorms may need to be extended. Wintry weather has ceased across the Big Island summits and the Winter Weather Advisory there has been cancelled.

Aviation

Breezy moist trade winds continue to maintain a bulk of clouds and showers along windward facing slopes, coasts, and within channels through the TAF period. An upper low in the vicinity will continue the threat of thunderstorms across much of the central and eastern islands into this afternoon. Showers will also increase across leeward areas again today as moisture deepens and winds strengthen, while weaker gradient winds in sheltered areas allows for sea breeze clouds and showers across interior leeward sections of the Big Island and Maui this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will remain in effect for north through east sections of most central through eastern islands through tonight as MVFR cigs/vsby continue to expand in areal coverage across windward zones.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence immediately south through west of higher terrain remains in effect for all islands. In addition, light icing is possible in the shallow layer between FL180/280 through tonight, mainly for Maui through the Big Island, as mid and upper level moisture combines with the upper level low over the islands.

Marine

High pressure north of the state is producing strong trade winds across the area. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters through tonight. Trade winds are expected to remain elevated over the next several days. This along with a late season northwest swell will keep SCA conditions going across many areas through the middle of the week. Also, an upper low over the area has destabilized the local airmass. This instability is producing isolated thunderstorms across the area this morning and will likely continue during the day today. This upper level low is expected to linger over the state through at least Thursday.
A new long period northwest swell has arrived at buoy 51001 and will begin to fill in across exposed north and west waters today. The swell will then get a reinforcement late Tuesday into Wednesday with surf heights possibly reaching low end advisory levels. This swell will then lower gradually through the remainder of the week.
A new long period south swell continues to fill in this morning and will continue to build today. An even larger south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. This swell may be large enough for surf heights to reach low end advisory levels during its peak Wednesday and Thursday. This swell will then lower gradually through the remainder of the week.
Trade winds over and upwind of the state will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores through all of next week. Surf heights are expected to remain above normal the next several days then lower during the second half of the week as the trade winds weaken some.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov