Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Cloudy and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 86. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Cloudy and windy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Lows 65 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph shifting to the north up to 30 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Cloudy and windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Cloudy and windy. Highs 79 to 85. East winds 20 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Cloudy. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Cloudy and windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Cloudy and breezy. Highs 71 to 80. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph decreasing to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Cloudy and breezy. Highs 65 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 57 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 66 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high northeast of the state will drive breezy trade winds across local waters through late next week, with the strongest trades expected through Saturday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. An upper low west of the state will bring patchy high cloud cover across the eastern half of the state into Saturday. Shower coverage may increase Monday night and Tuesday as an old frontal remnant swings through the islands.

Discussion

A high far north of the islands is driving breezy trade winds across local waters this afternoon. Satellite loop shows a mix of high and low clouds across the state, with high clouds favoring the eastern two-thirds of the chain. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers moving across windward areas. Models show the high to the north of the islands will slide eastward and strengthen through Saturday, keeping trades on the breezy side through then. This high will weaken Sunday and Sunday night. Expect trade wind speeds to decrease slightly Sunday through much of next week.
Mid and high cloud cover will linger over the islands though Saturday, with high clouds favoring the eastern half of the state. Expect a typical trade wind weather pattern, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Within stronger trade flow, leeward areas may get wet as well from time to time. Lowering inversion heights should lead to a decrease in showers beginning tonight, with drier than normal trade wind weather prevailing through Monday. A band of moisture associated with an old front will swing through the state Monday night and Tuesday, briefly increasing shower coverage. Drier trade wind weather will then return through late next week.

Aviation

This afternoon, extensive high clouds continue to stream across the state from Oahu to the Big Island as an upper low in the vicinity of the state slowly lifts northward through Saturday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure far northeast of the island chain will strengthen as it slides eastward, maintaining breezy to locally strong easterly trade winds throughout the forecast period. Showers and lower clouds will favor north through east sections of the islands throughout the forecast period. Although VFR conditions will prevail at most locations, brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any moderate to heavier showers, particularly across the Big Island and Maui.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for terrain above 2500 feet over windward portions of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Though the areal coverage of this AIRMET may need to be adjusted later this evening or tonight, tempo mountain obscuration will continue to favor these areas throughout the forecast period. Additionally, AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence remains in effect below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of all mountains. This AIRMET is likely to continue through the day on Saturday with breezy to locally strong trade winds remaining in place. Finally, a weak jet lifting across the western and central portions of the state this evening and tonight may result in moderate upper level turbulence as well, though confidence remains low at this time.

Marine

High pressure strengthening to the north will bring a slight uptick in wind speeds on Saturday. Widespread strong trade winds with near gales at the windier channels are expected on Saturday. These winds combined with rough seas hovering at or near the 10 ft advisory level supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing for all waters through Saturday. The advisory may be scaled back to the typical windier waters by Sunday through early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will continue to ease overnight with surf heights dropping to near the summer average (5 feet) on Saturday. No significant sources are expected from the south during the next week due to a large high pressure area setting up near our swell window around New Zealand.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through next week due to the strong trades in place locally and upstream of the islands.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will continue to fade overnight as a late-season northwest swell moves out. A tiny reinforcement from the north is possible late Saturday into Sunday especially across the eastern end of the state as bulk of the swell energy misses us to our east. Expect the summer- like trend up north to return next week with only background swells from the northwest.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov