Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 63. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 60 to 70. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure drifting north of the state will maintain a trade wind weather pattern across the islands through the remainder of the work week. Clouds and passing light showers will favor windward and mauka areas, while diurnal sea breeze clouds and isolated showers continue across favored leeward and interior sections. A slightly wetter trade wind pattern may develop over the area this weekend.

Discussion

Satellite and radar trends show a majority of clouds and showers this morning lingering along windward zones, and anchored to convergence flow along steep terrain and in channels between islands. The latest sounding data from PHLI and PHTO shows a stable air mass centered over the state as a strong trade wind inversion remains, with extremely dry conditions extending above the inversion through mid and upper levels. The latest model data and forecast soundings show this dry and stable air mass lingering through midweek, which will continue to limit the areal coverage and intensity of showers to mainly windward and mauka areas. The air mass will remain rather dry and stable, so only brief passing showers are expected again over windward and mauka areas Thursday into Friday.
With high pressure ridging settled in northeast of the state, light to moderate trade winds are expected to remain across the islands today through midweek. This pattern will allow for afternoon sea breeze clouds and isolated showers across some sheltered leeward areas. Sea breeze clouds and brief showers will then trend toward mauka and adjacent waters during the evening as a land breeze circulation develops.
Heading into the weekend, the surface high will be positioned far northeast of the area, with trade winds expected to weaken slightly. There are slight differences between the GFS and ECMWF in the finer details. The GFS shows an increase in moisture moving up over the area from the east southeast while the ECMWF remains drier. Thus we may see some increase in showers at that time primarily for windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the state will weaken slightly today. Expect light to moderate trade winds as a result with sea breezes developing along terrain sheltered western slopes of all islands. Stable conditions will prevail across the region with only brief passing showers favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Mostly VFR conditions are expected.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration over eastern slopes of the Big Island. Low cloud ceilings will diminish a few hours after sunrise this morning. No other AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Trade winds will persist in the moderate to fresh range through the forecast period.
Surf heights along south facing shores will steadily decline through mid-week. The next long-period south swell will fill in late Thursday into the weekend, bringing above average surf. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain nearly flat through today. A small very short period bump is expected for north and west facing shores today into Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will gradually decline as the trades weaken.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov