Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. East winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 20 mph in the evening becoming light.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 56 to 66. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through midweek, with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will trend down Friday through the weekend, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over leeward areas. Rainfall accumulations will remain light with the dry and stable conditions in place.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through the upcoming weekend and depicts the stable and dry trade wind pattern continuing. Any windward rainfall accumulations will remain on the light side given the dry profiles above a strong trade wind inversion ranging from 5000 to 7000 ft. The upper clouds that were streaming over the eastern end of the state Monday have all but diminished early this morning as the weak upper low drifts westward. Upper heights will begin to rise later today through Wednesday, which supports the suppressed environment with limited rainfall chances persisting. Easterly trades may increase slightly through midweek as the ridge nudges northward, but are expected to ease Friday through the weekend. If this unfolds, localized land and sea breeze conditions will become a possibility.

Aviation

A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will produce moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds today and tonight. A stable environment will limit cloud cover and shower activity, producing VFR conditions statewide.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect and none are expected.

Marine

High pressure building far north of the state will gradually strengthen the trade winds and become widespread moderate to fresh speeds across the coastal waters by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight and maybe extended if trade wind speeds remain elevated. Trade winds could decrease towards the end of the week as the ridge moves closer to the state.
Nearshore buoys are showing long-period energy is still filling in early this morning. We will continue to see a steady increase in surf heights to solid High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels by late this afternoon. A HSA is currently in effect for all south facing shores through Wednesday night. Surf heights may reach low-end warning level this evening if surf heights come in higher than guidance. Surf heights are expected decline Thursday into the weekend. South shore surf heights will return to the summer average levels by the weekend.
The current small northwest swell will slowly decline today and tonight with mainly background energy by tomorrow. A small, medium period north swell may fill in on Friday with a slight bump to surf heights along north facing shores. Surf along east facing shores will remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong trade winds. The one exception will be for areas exposed to the south swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for south facing shores of all Hawaiian islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov