Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for July 05, 2022

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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 69 to 75. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy and showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 69 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy and showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 89. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Locally strong trades will remain wetter than normal through tonight, particularly for the windward slopes of Maui County and Oahu. Trades and shower coverage then trend downward during the latter half of the week.

Discussion

Locally strong trades around the southern periphery of surface high pressure is directing a remnant band of frontal moisture over the central portions of the state this morning. Local radar imagery reveals frequent showers traversing windward and mauka slopes of Maui County and Oahu with lighter showers frequently drifting leeward, especially over Oahu. The primary adjustment to the forecast for today was to adjust pops and sky cover upward in these areas for the remainder of the morning. Decreased shower coverage is noted over Windward Kauai along the northern fringe of this band. The same can be said for the Big Island where the land breeze has cleared downslope areas of clouds and showers for the time being. The morning soundings out of Hilo and Lihue confirm the arrival of the well- advertised band of mid-level dry air around centered around 700mb. The presence of this drier air aloft will ensure continued stability and will limit rainfall amounts away from the most favored locales even as shower coverage remains high. The diurnal heating will bring some improvement by this afternoon, causing showers to trend downward until this evening. Showers then increase in coverage over roughly the same areas again tonight.
The mid-week period will be characterized by slight weakening of trades as the expansive high that has dominated the circulation over the north central Pacific begins to lose its grip over the area. Some degree of upper-level troughing will be a fixture during the coming week as the jet nestled within its southern flank directs a steady dose of cirrus from the lower latitudes and into area skies. As has been the case during the last couple of days, cirrus will be mostly transparent but even batches of partially opaque high cloud will be sufficient to take the edge off of daytime heat. Locally breezy trades will deliver periods of trade wind showers to windward zones for the remainder of the week, but continued stability will help limit rainfall amounts.

Aviation

Strong easterly trade winds will prevail into tonight, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYs are expected in and around passing showers through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over windward areas of Maui County and Oahu. Conditions may improve through the late morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains due to strong trades.

Marine

A strong surface high will remain centered far N of the islands through Friday, then build eastward next weekend. Except for a brief period of somewhat lighter trade winds around midweek, when the pressure gradient over the area may ease a little, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail for the foreseeable future. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier zones around Maui and the Big Island has been extended into Friday. All other waters have been removed from the SCA except the Kaiwi Channel.
No significant swells are expected over the next several days. The strong trades will support rough and choppy surf along E facing shores for the next day or so, with surf and seas easing somewhat Wednesday and Thursday as the upstream fetch diminishes. Minimal swell energy from the S and SE is expected for most of this week, but a long-lived run of near- to above- average surf along S facing shores is expected to begin late next weekend, as a strong low pressure passing SE of New Zealand sends long-period swells our direction. A small, long-period swell from the E may arrive early next week, generated by east Pacific Hurricane Bonnie.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kaiwi Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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