Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 89. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trades will focus cloud and showers over windward and mauka areas through Tuesday. The arrival of remnant moisture from a decaying tropical system will favor an increase in shower coverage Wednesday and Thursday.

Discussion

Opted to post a Wind Advisory for portions of the Big Island, Maui and Kahoolawe today and tonight. Bradshaw on the Big Island briefly touched advisory criteria yesterday. The high resolution models still show a small uptick today and tonight. The ASCAT pass missed the islands overnight, so decision was based on model guidance. It is expected to be a low end and short lived event.
As expected, there has been shower activity focused on the windward sides of the islands overnight. Several windward rain gages on the Big Island got a third to half an inch of rain overnight. Satellite derived precipitable water, and satellite imagery suggest a drier and more stable airmass moving over the islands later today, so expect shower activity to be on a downward trend today.
Mid to upper level ridging will be overhead over the next couple of days, helping to maintain a stable airmass over the islands. Combined with the drier airmass moving in, expect this relatively drier period to last into midweek. This may further suppress the inversion, which could cause an uptick in winds for the typical windier locations in Maui County and on the Big Island on Sunday. The overnight sounding at Hilo showed a higher inversion than yesterday afternoon, so time will tell how much of an impact it will have on the Big Island winds today.
The remnants of former tropical cyclone Bonnie look to arrive near the islands midweek. Have boosted the QPF towards the National Blend of Models for Wednesday and Thursday, but felt the existing PoPs were still in line with the global models, with the focus of the showers being the Big Island and Maui County.
In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Darby is forecast to move to the west over the next 5 days, and enter the Central Pacific basin at 140W sometime late Thursday. Any local impacts from Darby would not be anticipated until next weekend, and its much too early to discern any of those impact with any certainty. See bulletins issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami for the latest on Darby.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the islands will continue to produce breezy trade winds across the region. Passing showers will continue to produce brief periods of MVFR conditions over windward airfields, elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration for N thru E sections of Maui and the Big Island. Sierra will likely continue through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of island mountain ranges. Tango will continue at least through tonight.

Marine

Large surface high pressure anchored far north of the islands will maintain a tight enough pressure gradient back toward the state to continue support of sustained fresh to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier bays and channels around Maui and Big Island. An SCA is also in effect for the windward Maui and leeward Maui and Oahu coastal waters through at least early Monday morning.
A small, short period southeast swell will travel through the nearshore waters from Monday into late week. Along with the arrival of new southern swell forerunners, this will slightly bump up surf along more eastern and southern exposures Monday. Several pulses of long period south swell are expected to arrive through the week. These swells will generate near to above normal summertime southern facing shore surf heights. A slightly higher, long period south swell will begin arriving Monday afternoon and peak Tuesday and Wednesday's surf. Long range guidance has a gale low passing east of New Zealand early Tuesday that will provide a nice source or fetch region for even higher southern swell. This larger swell may produce High Surf Advisory level surf along southern exposures when it reaches the islands next weekend. Trades will continue to push relatively small, short period wind waves onto east facing shores. Small, medium period east swell emanating from former Hurricane Bonnie may arrive Monday and Tuesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov