Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure far to the north of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the middle of next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1400 miles north-northeast of Honolulu while a weak trough of low pressure is located around 750 miles northeast of the state. The gradient across the islands is producing moderate trade winds early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the smaller islands and leeward sections of the Big Island, with mostly cloudy skies over windward Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a few light showers making the trip over the mountains and into leeward communities. Main focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances through the next 7 days.
The trough of low pressure northeast of the islands will slide westward well to the north of the state during the next couple days. This will likely ease the trades ever so slightly today through Saturday, with the trades then increasing back to moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday through the middle of next week as strong high pressure anchors to the distant north- northeast. The trades may decrease late next week as the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone Estelle nears the islands.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather will continue through the middle of next week. Showers will be most prevalent at night and during the early morning hours, favoring windward and mauka areas as they typically due. We could see an increase in trade wind showers late next week if the remnant trough of Estelle moves through the island chain, but it could be drier than normal if the trough and associated moisture passes by to the north of the state. Still too much uncertainty in the later portions of the forecast to shy away from climatology, so we will continue to keep a close eye on model trends as the remnants of Estelle approach the islands from the east during the next few days.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will steer ragged bands of scattered light showers towards the islands. Isolated MVFR CIG or VIS possible in passing showers, especially along north and east facing slopes and coasts. Shower activity may increase in the evening hours. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for windward Big Island late tonight or Saturday morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level mechanical turbulence south thru west of mountains on Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve later today as the winds aloft gradually weaken.

Marine

High pressure centered far north of the state will sustain moderate to fresh trade winds into next week. For the time being, winds have eased below the 25-knot threshold for a Small Craft Advisory for coastal waters. However, they will remain near that level over the next several days in the typically breezy zones around Maui County and the Big Island.
Only small surf is expected through this weekend along south facing shores. A new small, long-period south swell could give south shore surf a small boost early next week. A much larger long-period south swell is forecast to arrive late next week, potentially pushing south shore surf back up around the advisory level of 10 feet.
Steady trade wind swell will keep east shore surf near, or slightly below, average levels during the next week. A small, longer period east swell associated with former tropical cyclone Estelle may give surf a small boost over the weekend. And north shore surf will remain nearly flat during the next 7 days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov