Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A nearly stationary frontal boundary continues to weaken over Maui and the Big Island this morning producing extensive clouds and enhanced showers. The highest rainfall amounts are forecast over windward and mountain areas. Moderate northeast trade winds are filling in behind the front as it passes through each island. This front will fade away by Tuesday. Drier and more stable conditions set up over the western end of the state from Wednesday through Friday, while a wet pattern will continue for the Big Island and east Maui as a passing low level disturbance pulls up tropical moisture from the southeast into the weekend.

Discussion

A nearly stationary frontal boundary continues to weaken over Maui and the Big Island this morning producing extensive clouds and enhanced showers. Isolated thunderstorms are shown on satellite imagery mainly south and west of the island of Kauai. Enhanced shower activity will continue for Maui and the Big Island with periods of moderate to locally heavy shower activity today. More stable cumulus clouds are seen on satellite imagery just north of the front supporting short range drying trends over the smaller islands.
Kauai, Oahu and Molokai will see northeast trade winds and gradual improving weather trends today as the front drifts further south with drier and more stable air filtering in from the north. Northeast trade winds will also reach Maui by Tuesday as the frontal boundary dissipates. Expect enhanced showers to linger over the windward Big Island and East Maui through Tuesday.
From Wednesday through Sunday, a high pressure ridge building over the state will lower the trade wind inversion height into the 5,000 to 7,000 foot range, limiting cloud tops and shower activity statewide in a light to moderate trade wind pattern for most islands. Sea breezes will develop over terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. The exception to this forecast will develop over the Big Island from Thursday to Friday, where a low level trough will pass south of the state, dragging deep tropical moisture northwestward into the Big Island. This deeper unstable moisture will mainly increase shower activity over the Big Island for both windward and leeward areas from Thursday into Saturday. However there is a chance that this additional tropical moisture may drift far enough north to enhance showers over windward areas of the smaller islands from Friday into the weekend. Stay tuned.

Aviation

A nearly stationary front over Maui will edge slowly southward today, then stall out and gradually dissipate near the Big Island tonight and Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers will continue along and near the front with periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys, and pockets of IFR conditions possible. A thunderstorm or two also can't be ruled out over Maui and the Big Island, primarily during the afternoon hours. Conditions over the Big Island should remain rather dry this morning, with conditions deteriorating this afternoon as the decaying front nears. Meanwhile, over Kauai and Oahu, mainly dry conditions should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Molokai and Maui. These conditions will likely continue this morning, with some improvement possible this afternoon over Molokai. Meanwhile, mountain obscuration could become a problem this afternoon over the Big Island.

Marine

A weakening front is stalling out across the central Hawaiian waters. More numerous showers and an isolated thunderstorm may occur along this diffuse boundary as it wavers and dissipates near the islands today. Moderate northeast winds behind the front will level off to more gentle or moderate trade magnitudes during the remainder of the week.
A couple of small to moderate size, medium period swells can be expected from around the northern half of the compass this week. An ongoing small, short to medium period north swell is slowly declining and will linger on through the early morning. A slightly larger, longer period north northeast swell originating from a northeast low will begin arriving later today and will peak surf along north-facing shores Tuesday. North surf is not expected to reach High Surf Advisory levels through Thursday. In tandem with this northeast swell, a small medium period northwest swell will pass through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As both of these swells subside Wednesday, a moderate size, medium to long period northwest swell will reach the islands Thursday and peak north-facing shore surf to possibly double head high heights Friday and Saturday. A small, medium period south swell will continue to fill in and peak today then lower gradually lower through the middle of the week. Mainly low background south swell energy later this week with a slightly larger bump in south swell expected Friday or Saturday. As a result of weaker trades over and upwind of the state, eastern wind wave chop will remain rather small. Any slight increase in any west or east-facing shore surf will come from north swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov