Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 50 percent chance of showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 66. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 88. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Weak trade winds will veer to the southeast as a front stalls just to our north this weekend. An area of enhanced tropical moisture will push across the island chain from the southeast, increasing clouds and showers across much of the state from Saturday into early next week. Shower coverage could be more widespread each afternoon and evening before diminishing each night.

Discussion

Moisture within light to moderate trade flow fuels clouds and showers across windward portions of the islands this morning. Earlier convective activity across windward portions of the Big Island has diminished significantly. Models show that a front approaching from the north will move closer to Kauai and weaken the trades today. Relatively dry conditions are expected across Kauai ahead of the front while greater moisture remains farther to the east. By tonight into Friday morning, more moisture will be drawn northward towards the state as winds continue to weaken and veer to southeasterlies. This will result in a hybrid sea-breeze pattern that could increase clouds and showers across leeward and interior sections of the islands by late Friday morning.
Winds will remain light into the weekend as they veer out of the southeast, allowing the Big Island to block much of the rest of the state. Afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes will continue through the weekend and into next week. With abundant tropical moisture in place, expect a generally wet pattern with showers favoring interior and leeward areas during the afternoons and evenings before diminishing each night. Confidence remains low concerning the amount and effects of the incoming tropical moisture this weekend. Our forecast reflects the possibility of higher rainfall probabilities and more widespread rainfall this weekend and beyond, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Aviation

A band of moisture over the central islands will produce passing showers this morning. Expect a hybrid wind pattern with light to moderate trade winds over eastern slopes, transitioning to a sea breeze pattern each afternoon over leeward areas. Mountain and interior showers are possible each afternoon switching to windward areas in the overnight time periods.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration over north through east sections of Oahu, Molokai and Maui. The Big Island also has the same AIRMET in effect from Laupahoehoe to Hilo to Volcano. This AIRMET will diminish around sunrise.

Marine

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most areas through tomorrow. Winds will ease Saturday through Monday, possibly becoming light and variable, as a deep low passes about 750 nm north of the state and pushes a weak surface ridge near the state. The low will lift to the north Monday and Tuesday, allowing the ridge to strengthen, and east to southeast winds will likely rebuild.
Surf along north facing shores will be small today but will build tonight as the next north swell fills in. This next swell will produce surf around the High Surf Advisory level tomorrow into Monday before dropping early next week. Since trade winds will be suppressed across the region through much of the week, the main source for east shore surf will be wrapping north swell. Surf along south facing shores will remain small today and tomorrow as the current south- southwest swell slowly fades today and another small, long period south swell fills in later today and tomorrow. A slightly larger south swell will likely produce surf above the October average during the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov