Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 71 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 69 to 77. Light winds becoming north 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy east-southeast winds will continue through Saturday, then become easterly on Sunday, and continue into next week. The island atmosphere will be somewhat unstable through Saturday, with some locally heavy downpours possible, especially over windward portions of Maui and the Big Island. A more typical trade wind weather regime is expected by Sunday.

Discussion

Generally speaking, surface high pressure to the distant NE will ensure that a trade wind flow persists over the islands through the weekend, and well into next week. In the short term, the flow will be veered to the SE (especially at cloud level) as a slow-moving and persistent frontal boundary NW of the islands creeps closer. The boundary is expected to eventually stall about 400 miles W of Kauai on Sunday, then gradually dissipate early next week. This should allow the moderate to breezy E-SE trade winds to back to a more typical easterly direction by early next week, with little significant change through the middle of the week.
Aloft, a persistent and large blocking high to the NE of the islands has a low moving W along it's southwestern periphery, with water vapor imagery indicating the low is centered about 300 miles NNW of Kauai. The presence of this low has destabilized the island atmosphere, with morning soundings indicating an unstable profile. Scattered thunderstorms are developing just S and E of the low's center, where instability is maximized. Closer to the islands, waves of moderate to heavy showers have been moving into windward and SE portions of the Big Island and Maui throughout the night. Elsewhere, fast-moving heavy showers are headed NW near 30 mph over windward waters from Oahu to the Big Island, and over waters NW of Kauai, with thunderstorms just N of the Kauai and Oahu coastal waters. Just a few windward showers have been noted over the islands from Molokai to Kauai. Scattered to broken high clouds are moving over the islands within a WSW flow aloft while scattered to broken low clouds are streaming in from the E toward Maui and the Big Island.
The low aloft will track W and NW over the next 2 days or so, maintaining a somewhat unstable island atmosphere, with warming mid- level temperatures expected thereafter as the low dissipates and a weak ridge develops. With the moderate to locally strong E-SE low- level flow being weakly convergent and fairly moist, guidance indicates that spotty locally heavy showers could develop into Saturday, with some showers potentially briefly dampening leeward locations. Showers are expected to be most prevalent over windward and SE portions of the Big Island and Maui, with Kauai and Oahu in the rain and wind shadow of Maui and the Big Island to a certain degree. Mid- and high-level clouds are also expected to thicken today, likely continuing into Saturday before diminishing.
A fairly typical trade wind weather pattern is expected for early to mid next week, with brief windward showers and little to no high cloudiness. Long-range guidance indicates the potential for a bit of a pattern shift as the blocking high to the N breaks down, potentially allowing a low aloft to move over the area in about a week.

Aviation

Surface high pressure located northeast of Hawaii bring moderate to locally breezy east southeast flow to the region through the forecast period.
An upper level low situated around 300 miles north northwest of Kauai will help to generate deeper low level clouds and enhance shower activity over the state. Eastern portions of the Big Island and Maui may receive pockets of heavier rain with accompanying MVFR and brief IFR conditions. Scattered showers with brief MVFR conditions may also occur along mainly windward portions of the remaining smaller islands.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north thru eastern portions of the Big Island and Maui above 2000 feet due to clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effects for Molokai Maui and the Big Island below 9000 feet over and immediately south through northwest of mountains due to tempo moderate turbulence.

Marine

Robust high pressure remains far north and northeast of the islands, while a front slowly approaches from the northwest. This pattern will sustain moderate to fresh, and locally strong, east to east- southeast winds through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues across the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island, and was expanded earlier to include most waters east of the Kauai Channel through early Saturday morning. Also, combined seas will reach or exceed the 10-foot SCA threshold in some waters.
A small swell from the northwest will continue through the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise due to the strengthening winds. East shore surf will remain elevated through the weekend before gradually diminishing by early next week. Surf along south facing shores will also remain above average, with a reinforcing south swell arriving today. South shore surf will drop back down to background levels by early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov