Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 83. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 84. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 76. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The tail end of a weak front will approach the islands tonight, and progress down the island chain through Thursday. Light winds today will give way to trade winds behind the front. Stable conditions aloft will limit overall rainfall, with showers focused over windward slopes.

Discussion

Minor changes to the forecast with the morning package. While there are some radar returns, rain gages show very little making it to the ground. As such have lowered PoPs for this morning. Made some minor tweaks to the PoPs tonight through tomorrow night to trend today the latest blend of the models.
No changes in the forecast philosophy this morning. Light winds continue across the islands early this morning, with overnight land breezes helping to clear out the skies over most areas. A low strong low pressure system is more than 1000 miles east northeast of the islands, with the associated cold front about 500 miles to the northwest. The leading edge of the cloud band is about 350 miles to the northwest. The low is expected to move to the east and then lift to the northeast tomorrow morning. This will drag the front towards the islands, and boost low level moisture near the islands. Although this increase will boost showers, the bulk of the moisture looks to stay on the eastern side of the islands. As high pressure moves north of the islands tonight, look for northerly winds to filter in, and then transition to trades. This will help to focus showers on the windward sides of the islands. Despite the increase in moisture, ridging will remain aloft, limiting rainfall totals. So expect more showers than we have seen recently, but don't expect a lot of rain.
Look for the moisture to reach Kauai tonight, and then spread to the smaller islands by tomorrow, and the Big Island later tomorrow night. Moisture will linger near Maui County and the Big Island Wednesday.
The high pressure system moving in behind the front will maintain a moderate trade wind pattern for the end of the week, again with limited shower activity.

Aviation

Land breezes will give way to increasing north to northeast winds later today as a front approaches from the northwest. Shower activity will remain minimal and confined mainly to the coastal waters and locations near the immediate coast this morning. A few showers will be possible over the island interiors this afternoon, and showers will likely increase over Kauai late this afternoon as the front nears. The front is expected to move southward into the smaller islands tonight, bringing a notable increase in showers along with some reduced cigs and vsbys, particularly to windward areas.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are anticipated through most of today. AIRMET Sierra may be required for windward sections of Kauai by late this afternoon and will likely expand to windward areas of the other smaller islands tonight.

Marine

The High Surf Warning has been downgraded to a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. The HSA for west facing shore of the Big Island has been cancelled along with the Small Craft Advisory as the current northwest swell continues to gradually subsides today. Overlapping northwest (330-340 degrees) and north- northwest (340-350 degrees) pulses will fill in late tonight through Wednesday keeping surf elevated along north and west facing shores. The HSA may need to be extended through tomorrow if these pulses come in larger than guidance. These swells will trend down Thursday through Friday. A small northwest swell (320 degrees) and small north- northeast swell (20-30 degrees) is possible Friday night through the coming weekend.
South facing shores remain small due to a small south- southwest swell (200 degrees) moving through today and tomorrow. Small surf along east facing shores may trend up through the rest of the week as trades return and more northerly and northeasterly pulses move through the state, mentioned above.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds will bleed through an approaching front from the northwest today. Expect moderate northeast winds to eventually spread down over the state later this afternoon and Wednesday as the front weakens and dissipates over or near the central waters. High pressure will build in behind the front, with gentle to moderate trade winds prevailing through the end of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north facing shores of Maui.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov