Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85. East winds 10 to 30 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 39 to 54. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trades will continue through early next week. A typical trade wind pattern will prevail during this time with showers focused over windward and mauka zones, especially overnight and during the early morning. Trades will gradually ease around the midweek time frame as a cold front passes to the north.

Discussion

Breezy trade winds will continue into the first half of next week as a persistent subtropical high moves slowly eastward. Typical trade wind conditions will be the result, with the best chance for showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. A weak low aloft just north of Hawaii combined with an area of moisture moving through will lead to periods of enhanced showers.
For the second half of the week, guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts the high weakening as a cold front passes to the north allowing the trades to relax beginning around Wednesday. The tail end of the aforementioned front passing to the north is projected to hangup north of the state through this time. This pattern transition would result in mostly dry conditions prevailing with gentle to moderate trades, except for afternoon showers that manage to develop over localized leeward areas where local sea breezes may form.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trades will continue into Monday, with showers favoring windward and mauka zones overnight through the morning hours. Some showers will lead to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS for brief periods as they pass through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 9000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through the rest of the weekend with breezy trade winds persisting.

Marine

A 1029 mb surface high centered far N of the islands will move slowly ESE through Monday, with little overall change in the current strong to near-gale force trade wind regime. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for all waters through today, and has been extended into Wednesday for the windiest zones around Maui and the Big Island. Additional zones may need to be extended beyond this afternoon.
The high will weaken far NE of the area from Monday night through Thursday, with its associated ridge shunted toward the islands. This will occur as low pressure fills the central N Pacific and sends a front toward the area. Trade winds will ease in response, with lightest winds expected on Thursday. A new high building NW of the islands will turn the winds toward the NE Thursday/Friday, potentially pushing the dissipating front over Kauai waters.
A long-period S swell will support surf heights above the seasonal average today, then diminish Monday through Wednesday, with small surf then prevailing along S facing shores into next weekend. The locally strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands will support short-period wind wave development that will lead to choppy surf along E facing shores, with E shore surf diminishing after midweek. Surf along N facing shores will be small for the next several days, but back-to-back medium-period NNW swells are expected from Thursday through Monday. Potential exists for surf heights to reach High Surf Advisory levels along exposed N facing shores with the second swell next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all remaining Hawaiian coastal waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov