Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 69 to 77. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 90. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 71 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 90. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Two upper lows will linger just north of the Hawaii Region, producing trough reflections at the surface. These surface troughs will continue to weaken the ridge farther north of the state, keeping light to moderate trade winds in the forecast at least through Friday. High pressure will build in from the northwest this weekend and will strengthen trade wind speeds into the moderate to locally breezy range from Sunday onward. Passing shower activity will return to windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours.

Discussion

Satellite water vapor imagery this morning continues to show two upper level lows spinning just northwest and north of the Hawaii Region. These upper level lows are strong enough to produce trough reflections in the surface pressure gradient north of the island chain, weakening the ridge farther north of the state through Friday. A subtropical jet stream over the region will continue to spread high level cirrus and middle level clouds across the state for the foreseeable future, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors in most areas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible for the higher elevation slopes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
A local scale land and sea breeze weather pattern will continue through Friday for most areas in a light large scale trade wind weather pattern. Trade wind temperature inversion heights from the 12Z (2 AM HST) morning balloon soundings from Lihue and Hilo range from 4,000 to 5,000 feet. Boundary layer moisture levels are fairly dry and a lack of instability will limit rainfall amounts today. Clouds and moisture under the subtropical jet steam does not seem to have a good surface connection to produce any shower enhancement over the Big Island or Maui at this time. One exception mights be the higher elevation slopes on the Big Island where if enough moisture moves in then isolated thunderstorms may develop during maximum heating in the afternoon hours.
The weather pattern changes on Saturday as the high pressure ridge north of the region builds back in from the northwest. Strengthening trade winds will produce brief passing showers along windward and mountain slopes, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Trade wind temperature inversion heights during this time will range from 6,000 to 8,000 feet elevation as the trade winds return favoring a scattered to occasionally numerous overnight shower pattern.

Aviation

A light trade wind flow will continue, which will allow daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop. Limited low clouds and showers will favor interior and leeward areas during the afternoon through the early evening, then windward areas overnight through early morning. VFR conditions will prevail, with ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA. Increased moisture moving over the Big Island today may fuel an isolated thunderstorm over the slopes this afternoon.
AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence between FL300 and FL450 will be dropped this morning as the potential for turbulence is diminishing.

Marine

A few surface troughs between the islands and surface high pressure northeast of the state will keep gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds through Thursday. Surface high pressure far northwest of the state will push southeast near 170W, as a ridge builds north of the state. This will reinforce the local pressure gradient as moderate to locally fresh trades look to hold through the weekend.
A long period south swell has filled in across the state as surf along south- facing shores reach near High Surf Advisory levels through today. The swell will gradually decline Thursday and Friday.
No other significant swells are expected through the week. A tiny northwest swell will keep north facing shores above summer time averages. East facing shores will remain small, as trade remain relatively light. Long range forecasts indicate the potential for a moderate, long period easterly swell from rapidly intensifying Hurricane Jova in the east pacific arriving early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov