Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy and windy. Showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 71 to 77. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

South Side

Today: Windy. Cloudy with showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 70 to 79. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Today: Windy and showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Cloudy with showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Cloudy with showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds 25 to 50 mph with gusts to 75 mph decreasing to 10 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 54 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Windy and showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Cloudy with showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Hurricane Hone is passing south of Big Island through early morning. Hone's main threats to the state continue to be the potential for heavy rainfall leading to flooding, damaging winds and elevated surf along east-facing shores. Strong and gusty easterly winds and periods of heavy rain will occur through Monday as Hone passes south of the islands. A return of breezy areawide trade winds is expected from Monday night through the remainder of the week as the cyclone continues its westward trek away from the island chain. Tropical Cyclone Gilma far east of the state will weaken as it approaches the state during the later half of next week.

Discussion

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Big Island. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Hone is a Category 1 Hurricane with its center of circulation located approximately located 60 miles south of South Point, Big Island this morning and has a steady westward movement at around 10 mph. Outer rain bands rotating in around the northern periphery of Hone has and will produce periods of moderate to locally heavy rain along the windward regions of Big Island along with smaller island windward and mauka areas. The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast keeps Hone a Category 1 hurricane as it passes south of the islands. For further details on Hurricane Hone's track and strength please refer to the latest forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
Deep tropical moisture associated with Hone continues to move into windward portions of the Big Island and is currently producing near inch to an inch and half per hour rates within the strongest rain bands. Based upon surface observations and radar estimates, the windward areas of the Big Island have already picked up 4 to 8 inches (with locally 10 plus inches) of rain from Hone over the past 24 hours. Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to impact the Hilo, Puna and Ka'u regions of Big Island through at least early Monday. This moisture will expand westward to all islands through early next week as Hone passes to the south of the state, increasing the potential for heavy statewide rainfall and threat for localized flash flooding. An additional 4 to 6 inches of total rainfall with locally higher amounts are possible over Big Island (especially windward areas). Thus, an ongoing Flood Watch is in effect for Big Island until Monday. Smaller islands will likely experience 2 to 4 inch average storm total rain amounts through Monday. Strong, more intense rain leading to higher rain accumulations will occur along the windward-facing mountain slopes of each island.
Based upon the current forecast track of TC hone, strong and gusty winds associated with the storm will continue to impact Big Island, with widespread gusts of 50 to 60 mph through the local exposed valleys and higher elevations (e.g., Kohala Ranch, Humuula Saddle, Upolu Point, Waikoloa) through this afternoon. The strongest gusts are expected around South Point, as well as downslope of Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, and the Kohala Mountains. Localized gusts could reach 70 mph. Northeast winds around the northern side of TC Hone will strengthen across the rest of the state through the day. Strong downslope winds will also occur over leeward slopes through the day. Wind gusts to 50 mph along the higher elevations and leeward communities has a Wind Advisory in effect for these areas through 6 AM Monday. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for Haleakala Summit, as gusts to 60 mph are possible today.
Deep tropical moisture associated with Hone will keep local relative humidity levels high. This increase in humidity, with the rainfall, has significantly decreased the fire weather threat.
A brief return of moderate to breezy trade winds is expected late Monday through Wednesday of next week as TC Hone tracks away from the state and TC Gilma approaches the region from the east. As of now, Gilma is forecast to weaken over the Central Pacific waters northeast of the state around Wednesday or Thursday.
For further details on TC Hone, please refer to the latest forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
Note that public and marine forecasts from WFO Honolulu will be updated on a modified schedule, in conjunction with the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast issued at 5 AM/PM and 11 AM/PM HST.

Aviation

Hurricane Hone, currently S of the Big Island, is going to be the main focus for weather into Monday as it continues its westward trajectory. As it passes expect IFR/MVFR conds. Sustained winds 30-40kts with higher gusts aren't out of the question. TSTMs are also possible for the Big Island through the morning. For the rest of the islands, increasing SHRA and low cigs with widespread MVFR conds. Isol IFR conds are also possible. Winds are expected to be strong over most areas with gusts at or over 40kts.
AIRMET Sierra for IFR conds is in effect for vsbys blw 3SM and cigs blw 010 for windward portions of the Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango for strong surface winds in excess of 40kts for the Big Island and 30kts for the rest of the islands is in effect.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb blw 090 downwind of island terrain.
All of the AIRMETs will likely be needed through tomorrow.
Aviation interests should pay close attention to the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, as well as updates to TC SIGMET Whiskey.

Marine

As of the 1500 UTC (0500 AM HST) advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Hone was located at 18.3N 156.1W, or about 100 nm SSW of Hilo, and was moving west at 7 kt. The system made its closest approach to the Big Island earlier this morning and is forecast to continue its west or west northwest trajectory just outside of our local coastal waters. A Hurricane Warning remains for the waters south of the Big Island while a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all other waters surrounding Big Island. The combination of Hurricane Hone's pass south of the island chain and a strong high far north of the state, will result in a tight pressure gradient and strong to Gale Force trade winds today. Gale Warnings are in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all remaining waters.
According to recent observations from the Hilo buoy, swell associated with Hurricane Hone has already peaked and is now quickly fading. Thus, the High Surf Warning has been canceled and an advisory has taken its place. Elsewhere across the island chain, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all east facing shores due to the disorganized short period swell associated with Hurricane Hone.
Surf along north facing shores is expected to remain tiny over the next several days, aside from some wind swell wrap. Surf along south and southeast facing shores of the smaller islands should see an increase today into Monday as Hurricane Hone passes south of the island chain. Low confidence in actual surf height values for south and southeast facing exposures due to the dependence of Hone's strength as it passes south.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Haleakala Summit, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Leeward, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Flood Watch through Monday evening for Big Island,
Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island,
Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Channel, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Leeward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.
Hurricane Warning for Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov