Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 77. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Tropical Storm Hone continues to move westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. High pressure far north of the state will bring a typical breezy trade wind pattern that will continue through much of the week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Tropical Cyclone Gilma far east of the state will weaken as it approaches later this week.

Discussion

Satellite and radar imagery continues to show Tropical Storm Hone moving westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. However, the forecast area remains enveloped by the system's broader cyclonic circulation. Given the rich low-level moisture still in place, with PWATs in excess of 2 inches, dynamics will be sufficient to produce extensive cloud cover and light to occasionally moderate showers for most areas this morning. The latest Hi-Res guidance keeps the strongest activity south of the islands so the Flood Watch for the Big Island was cancelled early.
Winds continue to diminish early this morning as the gradient weakens as Hone departs the area. The Wind Advisory for leeward areas and the Haleakala Summit was also cancelled early. Breezy trade winds will continue today.
CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water imagery continues to show a sharp moisture gradient nestled within a surface-to-mid level ridge axis northeast of the islands. PWATs across this gradient drops from over 2 inches to around an inch within about 50 miles. The transition from moist cyclonic flow associated with Hone to typical anticyclonic trades will be marked by the arrival of this boundary today. Upon its arrival, dewpoints will fall into the mid 60s, steering flow for trade wind showers will back to easterly, and the inversion will lower and strengthen considerably. See Fire Weather section below for potential fire weather concerns.
Moderate to locally breezy trades prevail through the week as Tropical Cyclone Gilma approaches the islands from the east. At this time, consensus among the guidance is that developing troughing NW of the region will cause Gilma to recurve upon approach to the islands potentially leading to a period of warmer weather featuring higher humidity and light winds this weekend. A more southerly track would bring a greater probability of a wet trade wind type of pattern. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the progress of Gilma as it cross into the Central Pacific Basin late tonight. Tropical Cyclone Hector far east of the island looks to move into the Central Pacific Basin later this week and does not pose a threat to our local weather at this time.

Aviation

Tropical Storm Hone, currently several hundred miles southwest of Oahu, continues to be the main focus for weather early this morning as it moves further westward and away from the state. Clouds and showers on the outer periphery of Hone will maintain MVFR conditions over much of the smaller islands for the next several hours. However, drier air should filter in by later today and act to dissipate much of the cloud cover. Easterly winds will remain elevated this morning, then gradually weaken by this afternoon into tonight.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect above 2500 feet for all islands due to mountain obscuration, but will likely be dropped later this morning as conditions improve.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain and is expected to be needed through at least this morning.
Aviation interests should pay close attention to the latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, as well as updates to TC SIGMET Whiskey.

Marine

Strong easterly winds and rough seas will continue today as Tropical Storm Hone tracks westward, passing about 160 nm south of the Kauai waters. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken over the region through the week as Hone tracks away and Hurricane Gilma approaches from the east. A Small Craft Advisory is now in place for all Hawaiian waters, and that should hold through the day today. This advisory should be scaled back to only include the typical waters around Kauai, Maui County, and the Big Island tonight as the winds begin to ease. Winds should ease into the moderate to fresh category Tuesday through midweek.
Although the current forecast by the National Hurricane Center shows Gilma quickly weakening as it approaches and passes the islands to the north later this week through the weekend, any deviation in the forecast track could have a more significant impact on the Hawaiian waters this weekend. Refer to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center for more information on Gilma.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough today, then quickly ease Tuesday through midweek as the easterly winds trend down. An upward trend is possible through the week, as a medium- period easterly swell from Gilma begins to fill in.
Surf along south facing shores will hold today due to a combination of a small background south swell and short- to medium-period south to southeast swell generated by Hone passing to the south. A downward trend back to the summertime average is expected by midweek.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain near the seasonal average this week, but could slightly rise this weekend for north facing shores as Gilma approaches the region.

Fire weather

Breezy winds will continue today as drier air spreads across the area from the east. This will bring elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Relative humidity remains marginal today, around 50 percent. These borderline conditions precludes issuance of a Red Flag Warning at this time.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov