Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 71. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will prevail across the islands through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. A slug of deep moisture will bring an increase in trade wind showers particularly to windward slopes and coasts as it moves from east to west across the islands today and tonight. Typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward and mauka showers will return by Tuesday and continue through the upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the greatest in windward areas. Radar imagery shows numerous to widespread shower activity over windward areas from Oahu eastward, with scattered showers moving into windward Kauai. Main short term focus is on rain chances during the next couple days.
High pressure north-northeast of the state will drift westward to a location due north of the islands today, then remain nearly stationary through Thursday, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place. The high will shift eastward and weaken slightly Friday through the upcoming weekend, which could bring a slight easing in the trade wind speeds.
As for the remaining weather details, a mid-level trough will bring a slug of deeper moisture from east to west across the islands today and tonight. Showery weather can be expected in windward areas as this batch of deeper moisture moves through. We should see a return back to more typical trade wind weather beginning this afternoon over the Big Island and by Tuesday morning over Kauai. Typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward and mauka showers and the occasional leeward spillover will then continue Tuesday through the upcoming weekend.

Aviation

High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain moderate to breezy trades over the next few days. A plume of deeper moisture is moving across the state this morning, affecting primarily windward portions of the islands, though the temperature inversion heights will remain elevated enough to allow occasional showers to pass over island terrain into some leeward areas. MVFR conditions, and isolated IFR, are expected in heavier showers through the morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect this morning for mountain obscuration due to low clouds and showers for windward portions of the state except for Kauai, although it may need to be added later this morning. These conditions will persist through the morning and may improve by the afternoon.
With locally breezy trade winds prevailing across the state, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through tonight.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will hold through Thursday, as a strong surface high meanders far north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded for all waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island through tonight, and remains in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui County through Tuesday night. The SCA advisory may need to be extended through Thursday. The high will weaken and move eastward late Thursday and Friday, leading to a slight decline in the trades.
Surf across most shores will be below seasonal average through the week. Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy through Thursday due to persistent trades locally and upstream of the islands. A decrease in trade winds will cause east shore surf to decline Friday. South facing shores will continue to decline over the next few days. A small southwest pulse out of the Tasman Sea could produce a slight rise in surf Friday. Aside from trade wind wrap, surf along north facing shores will be minimal through Wednesday, and a tiny northwest swell will be possible Thursday or Friday.
The combination of seasonally high astronomical tides and water levels running around 6 inches higher than predicted will produce localized coastal inundation each afternoon through Tuesday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued to highlight these conditions.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov