Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 45 to 55. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 88. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate northeast trades will weaken a bit today and tomorrow as a couple fronts north of the islands disrupt the trade wind flow. A surface trough moving through the islands from the east will bring some clouds and showers, mainly to windward areas. Some strengthening of the trades is expected early next week.

Discussion

There are some changes to the PoP grids for the first couple of days with this mornings package. The PoPs have been lowered a bit for the windward sides of the islands based on the National Blend of Models. This seems to be picking up on a weakening of the trough that will be moving through the islands today from the east.
Clouds associated with the southern end of a weakening surface trough have moved over the Big Island, bringing an uptick in shower activity. Satellite shows the clouds with the trough becoming less organized as the trough weakens. Some clouds and showers are likely to move over the smaller islands today, but as indicated above, the PoPs have been lowered a bit.
The upper level low is off to the west of Kauai this morning, with minimum impacts to the local weather. High clouds are moving over the islands from the south on the east side of the upper level low. An upper level ridge building over the islands will help to stabilize the airmass Friday.
A couple of fronts passing far north of the islands will help to maintain light to moderate trades winds into the weekend. Heading into the new week, high pressure will move in behind the fronts, to the north of the islands, allowing trades to rebound to moderate to locally breezy levels.

Aviation

Moderate trades expected through the rest of the week. SHRA and low cigs could bring brief MVFR conds to windward and mauka areas. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island. Conds expected to improve later this morning.

Marine

A ridge of surface high pressure far northwest of the state will remain nearly stationary through this evening and maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the local waters. Tonight into early this weekend, a weak cold front will drop southward, weaken the pressure gradient, and allow local winds to ease into the gentle to locally moderate range. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop early next week as a high rebuilds north of the state and moderate to locally strong trade winds return.
As of early this morning, both Hanalei and Waimea buoys indicated the presence of a 3 to 4 foot, 11 to 12 second, north northwest swell. Thus, expect small surf along exposed north facing shores through the remainder of today. This swell will slowly subside through Friday, then bump up again this weekend as a similar size north northwest swell reinforces. The next significant north northwesterly swell (340 degree) is poised to arrive late Sunday into early next week and may be large enough to produce High Surf Advisory level conditions along north facing shores.
Long period forerunners of the next small south swell will begin to trickle in by mid- day today and reinforce background swell currently in place. This new swell should build further on Friday which will add a slight bump up for surf along south facing shores. Surf along west- facing shores will be influenced by a mixture of both north northwest and south swells. Thus, expect western exposures to remain slightly elevated as well. East- facing shore chop will be lower than normal over the next several days as trade wind flow remains relatively weak locally and upstream.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov