Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 74 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weak low level trough axis has drifted just west of Kauai this morning, more stable air will stream in from the east to decrease shower activity as trade winds strengthen through Wednesday. Another uptick in showers will be possible from Thursday into Saturday morning as another weak disturbance moves through the island chain. Drier trends with lighter winds return from Saturday through the first half of next week.

Discussion

Looking at the Hawaii region from the GOES weather satellite perspective, we see the low level trough axis has drifted west of Kauai this morning. More stable air just east of the state will stream into each island today decreasing shower trends statewide through Wednesday.
Another low level trough will move into the eastern islands on Thursday, yet again briefly increasing shower trends into Saturday. A weak upper level low drifting just east of the state may also assist in producing unstable clouds in the trade wind flow just upstream of the island chain. Drier trends return from late Saturday morning onward.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through Thursday under a broad subtropical ridge. Expect a slight decrease in trade wind speeds with a hybrid expansion in daytime sea breeze winds along western terrain sheltered slopes from Friday through the first half of next week.

Aviation

Drier and more stable conditions are expected today in the wake of a low level trough that moved across the islands yesterday evening. Latest satellite imagery this morning shows some clouds and showers with occasional MVFR conditions lingering over windward Big Island, where AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected for most locations throughout the next 24 hours.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain will likely be needed later this morning as easterly trade winds become locally strong today.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep fresh to strong trades in place through Wednesday. The trades will ease slightly Thursday through Saturday as an approaching front weakens the ridge north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all coastal waters through 6 PM this evening due to winds and/or elevated seas. The SCA continues through 6 PM Wednesday due to strong winds for most waters from Oahu eastward. The SCA will likely need to be extended through at least Wednesday night for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.
The current moderate to large, medium period north swell will slowly decline through the remainder of the work week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM this evening for most north facing shores across the state. Surf along west facing shores will remain slightly elevated with the influence of the north swell during the next couple days. East shore surf will increase a bit today and Wednesday in response to strengthening trades over and upstream of the islands. The surf will then trend lower Thursday through the weekend as the trades ease a bit. However, east facing shores exposed to the north swell will continue to see some wrap during the next couple days. South shore surf will remain small with mainly background south and southeast swells during the next 7 days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for north facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for most Hawaiian Coastal Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov