Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 72. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 86. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 78. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 70 to 86. South winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 55 to 71. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 86. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Relatively dry and stable conditions will persist through Wednesday with light winds that will allow for sea breezes each day and land breezes overnight. A front will move through Kauai on Thursday then dissipate over the central portion of the state on Friday. Chances of rain will increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary with moderate to locally breezy northeast winds filling in behind it.

Discussion

A dry and stable air mass will remain in place through today due to a ridge of high pressure over the state. Winds will be light and variable with a background southerly flow. Winds should be light enough for day time sea breezes and night time land breezes. Day time sea breezes will lead to afternoon clouds over interior and mountain areas with a few light showers possible. A slightly stronger southeast flow is expected to fill in from the south today into Wednesday, ahead of the front that should gradually increase moisture in the area tonight into Wednesday.
Starting Wednesday, a front will begin to approach the state from the northwest. Southerly wind flow will strengthen around the western end of the state, increasing chances of showers. By Thursday, the front is expected to be over or through Kauai with some prefrontal showers increasing over Oahu and possibly parts of Maui County. The front is expected to eventually stall out and dissipate near the central portion of the state Friday. Overall the front does not look very impressive, but it could bring some light to moderate rainfall to some much needed locations on the leeward side. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible late Thursday into Friday, in the area where the frontal boundary stalls.
Moderate to locally breezy trades should briefly return over the western half of the state on Friday as a weak high develops northwest of the state. Trades will be short- lived as the high quickly shifts east as another front passes north of the state. This will put the western end of the state in a light wind flow patter while gentle easterly winds linger over the eastern end. Confidence in the weather forecast over the weekend remains low with most of the ensemble members showing some type of upper level trough pushing through the state. Stay tuned for more details.

Aviation

A ridge of high pressure sitting over the state will allow for light and variable winds causing sea/land breezes every day/night through at least midweek. SHRA and isol low cigs will be possible but VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs currently in effect and none are anticipated.

Marine

An E-W oriented surface ridge extending over the islands from the E is supporting gentle winds statewide that are out of the E-SE over Big Island waters, and from the S-SW over Kauai and Oahu waters. Little overall change in the ridge's position is expected through Wednesday. A low passing N of the islands late Wednesday and Thursday will force the ridge eastward, with a tightening low-level gradient supporting fresh to locally strong S to SW winds statewide as an associated front approaches from the NW. Fairly high confidence in the front moving over Kauai and Oahu from late Thursday into Friday, likely stalling on Friday over the central portion of the island chain. Winds and/or seas will likely reach Small Craft Advisory criteria in at least some of the waters Thursday and Friday.
As the front dissipates, locally fresh post-frontal N winds will gradually ease and veer to the NE Thursday night into Friday. Wind speeds will quickly diminish into Saturday, when a period of light and variable winds is expected. Light NE winds on Sunday are expected to give way to increasing trade wind flow in the longer term.
Fetches of near-gale to gale-force winds associated with fast- moving low pressure systems passing well N of the area will send NW swells of varying sizes and periods toward the islands this week. Although most of the swell energy will be in the shorter- period 12-14 second bands, resultant surf is expected to be near or above High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along exposed N and W facing shores at times.
Wave/swell heights at NDBC buoys 51001/51101 NW of Kauai have increased overnight, where significant wave heights have reached as high as 11 feet. Although primarily associated with relatively short- period (12 seconds) NW swell, longer period (14-17 second) bands are seeing increased NW swell energy over the last several hours. Resultant surf is expected to peak near High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels later today, and a HSA is in effect for exposed shores. Another NW swell Thursday into Friday will likely produce HSA- level surf before a general diminishing trend in NW swell develops by next weekend.
A long-period S swell will peak today, producing surf near summertime averages along S facing shores, before gradually diminishing through Thursday. Another similarly-sized long-period S swell is expected by next weekend.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Daytime relative humidity values may briefly approach critical levels this afternoon but winds will remain light and preclude any fire weather concerns. From Wednesday into the weekend, minimum relative humidity values are expected to trend above critical levels due to increasing moisture and showers as a front approaches and dissipates near the central portion of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 AM HST Wednesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai and north facing shores of Maui.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov