Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 53 to 65. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 54 to 66. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 76. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 54 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light northwest winds will shift to northeast tonight and Saturday while gradually strengthening. Dewpoints will rebound toward normal and enhanced trade showers will focus mainly along windward and mauka areas, spilling over to leeward areas at times through the weekend and into early next week.

Discussion

Cool and crisp conditions are apparent this morning. Dewpoints are in the low 50s to 60 across the state. Overnight land breeze cleared out remaining low level clouds and thin upper level clouds has allowed for temperatures to cool in the mid to low 60s. Expect another rather dry and cool day today for Kauai and Oahu. Maui County the Big Island will see dewpoints climb today and tonight due to a transient surface high to our west shifting over the state today and tonight allow for winds to shift from the northwest to northeast before gradually to moderate levels by tonight. In addition, CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows a conveyor belt of enhanced moisture being drawn from the tropics northward associated with a gale low far north of the state and a trough 260 miles west of the Big Island. The low will weaken and get absorbed by a stronger low to the far northwest and with the return of easterlies locally, that area of enhanced moisture will shift westward, reaching the Big Island this afternoon and early evening then Maui County tonight. High resolution model guidance shows the added moisture will generate enhanced trade wind showers around Maui County and the Big Island late this afternoon and evening as an upper level short wave trough dives down, adding some vertical support along with diurnal tradewind shower pattern.
A ridge will quickly fill in aloft Saturday into Sunday and support more typical tradewinds showers over the state as the area of moisture shifts over the entire state. A weak front approaching from the north will move or pass just north of the state reviving the moisture band over the sate and will keep wet trades in the forecast for Sunday into Monday.
The extended forecast remains on track where guidance continues to show renewed troughing within NW flow aloft that will favor low pressure development over the lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal boundary will strengthen in response to developing forcing and will serve as the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track near or north of the forecast area during the middle to latter portion of next week. There is still considerable differences in the model guidance where the low will develop in relation to the state and the exact impacts, but the second half of next week seemingly looks like it could produce some meaningful rainfall across some or all of the island chain.

Aviation

Dry and stable northwest flow will persist through the morning hours. Trade winds and trade wind showers will build in this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail all areas through this evening. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for portions of windward Big Island or East Maui late tonight or early Saturday.
No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated today.

Marine

A ridge over the islands will begin to lift north today into the weekend. Light winds this morning will transition to light to moderate trades this afternoon then ramp up to moderate to fresh levels over the weekend. As we head into early next week, while a trade wind regime should remain in place there is some uncertainty as a trough moves in from the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most marine zones until 6 pm this evening due to seas in the 10ft range.
Disorganized surf due to a combination of northwest and north swells should continue along north facing shores during the next couple days. These swells should gradually decline today and through the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for north facing shores until 6 pm this evening. A series of overlapping, moderate sized, north and northwest swells, should move through during the first half of next week, giving a boost to north shore surf.
Some wrap around surf can be expected from the northerly swells. East shore surf should remain below normal through the middle of next week. South shore surf will remain at very small levels through at least Wednesday.

Fire weather

Afternoon RH values will be in the 40s again today, but winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold. Minimum RH values will then rebound above 45 percent Saturday into early next week. Thus, no critical fire behavior is expected during the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov