Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for January 25, 2025

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Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

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Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

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Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 51 to 68. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 52 to 68. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

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Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 78. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A low pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands is dragging a low level boundary over the eastern islands this morning. Chances for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over north and east slopes of the Big Island this afternoon. This low level boundary will weaken and lift northwestward ahead of the next shallow cold front due to move through the island chain from Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to breezy trade wind will fill in as the front passes through each island. A very wet weather pattern with kona winds may develop by next week Thursday.

Discussion

The tail end of a low level trough will linger near the eastern slopes of the Big Island today enhancing some afternoon showers with the potential for another round of isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall from Laupahoehoe to Hilo to Puna. This boundary near the Big Island will weaken and slowly lift northwestward over the next two days. Heavy rainfall over the north and east slopes of the Big Island last night produced between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall based on a combination of radar rainfall estimates and rain gauge observations. No significant flooding, As of 4 AM HST this morning, was reported by local Big Island officials.
Looking into the near future, we see periods of wet weather shaping up across the Hawaii region through Tuesday. A combination of two low level boundaries, a trough near the Big Island and an approaching cold front, combine forces with an upper level disturbance to enhance showers across the state. Light to moderate trade winds will continue as a shallow front passes through the islands from Monday into Tuesday. Shower activity will favor north and east slopes of each island, and all areas along the passing frontal cloud band. Cool northerly winds will move in along and behind this front as it passes through each island. This frontal boundary will diminish into a trough and stall near the Big Island and Maui from late Tuesday into Wednesday, and then slowly lift northward as more unstable southerly kona winds begin to develop.
By next week Thursday, the weather pattern changes significantly with kona winds developing over the islands as a cut off low moves into the region. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms impacts are possible from Thursday into Friday as this system passes quickly through the region. Model solutions are still trying to settle on the track and intensity of this next potentially impactful rainfall event. Island by island impacts will depend heavily on the track and intensity of next weeks system. Thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain for some islands should be expected. Flooding threats are possible as some heavy rain bands or thunderstorms may train over one or two islands. Stay tuned for more details as the forecast time period grows shorter and the forecast guidance tunes into this potential kona low weather event.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will steer bands of clouds and light showers off the Pacific towards windward slopes and coasts. Showers this morning will be most active along east facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, but will spread across windward Molokai and Oahu later today.
The airmass over the state remains unstable. Daytime heating is expected to drive widespread afternoon convection, especially over the eastern end of the state. Most recent satellite and radar imagery indicates moderate to heavy showers lingering just off the east coast of the Big Island. These showers should taper off in the next few hours. Heavy showers or thunderstorms will likely redevelop over Interior and Windward portions of the Big Island this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra remains posted for mountain obscuration across east facing slopes of both the Big Island and Maui. Sierra will likely be canceled by mid-morning, but conditions could redevelop later in the day.

Marine

Light to moderate northeast to east winds will persist into Sunday as a weak surface ridge lifts north of the state. Pockets of fresh breezes may develop over the typically windier waters and channels from Maui County to the Big Island during this time. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are expected to return over the western half of the state late Sunday through Monday, then extend statewide from Tuesday through Wednesday as another front moves into the area.
Surf along shores exposed to northerly swells will gradually lower through the weekend as a north-northwest swell eases. Offshore buoys to the north and northwest confirm this downward trend, showing a wide range of short- to medium-period north- northwest energy. As a result, the surf has fallen below the advisory level overnight and will dip below average from Sunday through Monday.
With a blocking high persisting over the northwest Pacific, the primary swell source will remain out of the north next week, featuring a mix of short-period wind waves associated with the northerly winds expected locally and medium-period northerly swells. Forecast guidance indicates an upward trend in surf beginning Tuesday and continuing into late next week due to a potential gale forming well to the north. Heights could near or reach the advisory level around Wednesday, if this scenario evolves.
Surf along east-facing shores, not exposed to northerly swells, will remain small each day due to the lack of trades locally and upstream.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain around the seasonal average, with mainly a mix of short-period southeast and an occasional background south swell moving through.

Fire weather

Wind speeds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds through the middle of next week. Moisture levels rise swiftly from Thursday onward with southerly winds bringing another round of widespread rainfall in the forecast for all islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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