2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook calls for above-normal season with 5-13 tropical cyclones

Forecasters with the NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu Forecast Office are predicting an above-normal hurricane season for the central Pacific basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 70% chance of an above-normal season, with a total of 5-13 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific.

The forecast says there’s a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The central Pacific is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist for the NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu Forecast Office, provided this year’s hurricane outlook and discussed the importance of monitoring forecasts, understanding local risks and taking timely protective action when watches or warnings are issued.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Key factor driving NOAA’s forecast

The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Niño conditions are expected throughout the hurricane season, with the tropical Pacific most likely to experience a moderate or stronger El Niño. Strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated levels of activity in the central Pacific.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land, as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns, and is not a landfall forecast. 

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and ready.gov for important preparedness information,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.

An in-depth technical discussion of the central and eastern Pacific season outlook is available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr

Gov. Josh Green joined the National Weather Service, the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency and county emergency management leaders to present the 2026 Hurricane Weather Outlook, Thursday. All encourage residents, communities and partners across Hawaiʻi to prepare before a storm threatens the state.

During the event at the state Capitol, Green also proclaimed May as Hurricane Awareness and Preparedness Month, reinforcing the importance of readiness ahead of hurricane season.

Speakers emphasized that preparedness starts before an emergency and requires coordination at every level — from individuals and families to neighborhoods, counties, the state and federal partners. Officials shared information on the 2026 hurricane outlook, actions residents should take now and the resources available to support public safety and emergency communications across Hawaiʻi.

“As we enter hurricane season, we are reminding everyone in Hawaiʻi that preparedness saves lives,” said Green. “Our administration is committed to a unified, statewide approach that brings together county, state and federal agencies to protect our communities. When we prepare early and work in coordination, we strengthen resilience across Hawaiʻi.”

Major General Stephen F. Logan, Director of HIEMA, said the annual outlook is a reminder that preparedness is a shared responsibility and that the Hawaiʻi DOD is always prepared to take early action to help reduce risk when severe weather threatens the islands.

“The Hawaiʻi National Guard is an integral part of the state’s emergency response framework, and we are prepared to support our partners whenever called upon,” Logan said. “Through strong coordination, disciplined planning and a shared commitment to public safety, we help ensure Hawaiʻi is ready to respond decisively and recover quickly from hurricane impacts.”

James Barros, Administrator of HIEMA, encouraged residents to review their emergency plans, build or refresh disaster supply kits and stay informed through trusted, official sources throughout hurricane season.

“No single agency prepares for hurricane season alone. Effective emergency management depends on trusted partnerships, coordinated planning and clear public communication. HIEMA is focused on bringing those pieces together so that communities across Hawaiʻi are better prepared before a storm and better supported if one occurs,” Barros said.

County emergency management leaders from Kauaʻi, Maui and Hawaiʻi Island also highlighted ongoing coordination efforts and the importance of community-level preparedness, getting information to the public, as well as response planning.

Officials encouraged the public to take simple but important preparedness steps now, including:

• Make or update an emergency plan for your household
• Build or restock a disaster supply kit
• Know evacuation routes and shelter information for your area
• Sign up for local emergency alerts and notifications
• Monitor official forecasts and guidance throughout hurricane season

For preparedness information, residents are encouraged to follow guidance from HIEMA, county emergency management agencies and the National Weather Service.

• Information on hurricanes: https://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/hurricane/
• Information on county alerts: https://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/get-ready/
• Information on NWS: https://www.weather.gov/