West Side

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 73. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 73. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 87. East winds around 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle trades with mostly dry conditions should persist through Saturday. Moderate trades will briefly return early next week, bringing back the typical windward and mauka showers. A slight weakening and veering of the trade wind flow may unfold for the latter part of next week.

Discussion

This morning's observations across the state show the development of some light land breezes over many areas of the state. A weak ridge of high pressure is located just north of the state, which should produce gentle trade winds by later this morning. The trade winds will likely give way to some sea breeze development across select leeward areas, which should allow for some afternoon cloud development over interior areas. As far as precipitation, rainfall amounts will be little to none in many areas due to the dry and stable conditions seen on the 12Z Lihue sounding. Drier than normal conditions will likely persist through Saturday.
The gentle trades will slightly strengthen Saturday night into Sunday, which could bring a slight increase of some passing showers. A band of some deeper moisture could move in by Monday, which should bring the return of scattered showers, especially over windward and mauka areas.
A weak surface trough approaching the state from the east and a developing low to the north will cause winds to weaken and veer slightly south of east across the islands for the latter half of next week. Increasing moisture ahead of the trough from the east will increase the dew points and will likely produce warm and humid conditions towards the second half of next week. Shower activity could also increase, particularly across the eastern end of the state. Most of these showers will likely be focused over windward and mauka areas, but if the winds become light enough as the pressure gradient weakens slightly midweek, there may be some isolated sea breeze showers over leeward and interior areas during the afternoons.

Aviation

Gentle trades with localized land and sea breezes will persist through Saturday. A drier airmass in place should lead to mostly VFR conditions, but some brief MVFR ceilings can't be ruled out with any isolated showers, especially over leeward and interior areas during the afternoons and windward areas during the overnight hours.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Gentle to moderate east-northeasterly winds are expected through Saturday as a weak front passing far north of the state keeps trade winds tempered. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as a surface ridge strengthens north of the area.
Small pulses of southerly swell will bring somewhat below average surf to south facing shores today. Surf will begin to trend up on Saturday as forerunners from a large, long-period swell originating from southeast of New Zealand arrive. Surf is expected to peak Sunday into Monday, approaching warning levels, but most likely to remain at advisory levels. This swell will also coincide with the peak monthly tides which may lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. South shore surf will remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of continued overlapping southerly swells.
Very little swell energy is arriving along north facing shores today, keeping surf tiny to non-existent. A small bump in surf is possible along north and west facing shores with the arrival of a small northwest swell and a smaller north swell early next week. Weaker than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands will produce below average surf along east facing shores through the weekend and into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov