Does improved Optimism Index portend anything for Hawaiʻi?

Main Street’s outlook on the economy is on the rise, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8, placing it above its 52-year average of 98.0. This marks the highest level since August 2025. 

“Eight of the Index’s 10 components rose, including the ‘plans to increase employment’ and ‘plans to make capital outlays’ categories,” said Michael Iosua, state director for NFIB in Hawaiʻi. “Although the Index is a national snapshot not broken down by state, I think it, along with the recently released state rankings from US News & World Report and from CNBC, give all the candidates who emerged from the Hawaiʻi Primary Election something to seriously consider when forming their small business policy points.”

“Small business optimism rose again in July, with a significant increase in owners expecting to hire, accompanied by an improvement in plans to make capital expenditures,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Although uncertainty is currently elevated, Main Street anticipates that business conditions will continue to improve.”

Highlights from the July SBET Include:

• In July, the top reported issue was labor quality or availability. Twenty-seven percent of small business owners cited “labor quality or availability” as their single most important problem in July, up 8 points from June and 15 points above the historical average of 12%.
• Looking ahead, a seasonally adjusted net 20% of owners plan to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June. Hiring plans are at their highest level since October 2022 and are 9 points above the historical average.
• In July, both actual and planned price increases dropped notably from June. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points from June to a net 31% (seasonally adjusted), after four consecutive months of increases. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June.
• Reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Fourteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, down 7 points from June’s highest reading since October 2024.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in July 2026.

NFIB advocates on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. The nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association is dedicated to small and independent businesses.