Hurricane Watch issued for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau

The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. At 5 p.m., the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located about 500 miles SSW of Līhuʻe, Kauaʻi and about 525 miles SW of Honolulu, Oʻahu. Lowell is moving toward the north near 9 mph.

The National Weather Service provided insight into the hurricane’s path saying: “Lowell is expected to pass west of the Kauaʻi coastal waters late Monday through Monday night. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Kauaʻi and Niʻihau at the the closet approach, and thus a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauaʻi County and the surrounding coastal waters. As the track has nudged to the east, it has raised the possibility of hurricane force winds reaching Kauaʻi and Niʻihau, as a result a Hurricane Watch has also been issued for these areas.”

A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, on Monday night.

Lowell is then forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight into tomorrow. However, Lowell is forecast to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauaʻi County beginning Monday afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30% stronger than the near-surface winds, and wind gusts to hurricane force are possible. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauaʻi, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauaʻi county and portions of the Big Island.

The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Kauaʻi County (1-3 ft) and Oʻahu (up to 1 ft). The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Several tornadoes are possible near Kauaʻi and Niʻihau Monday afternoon through Monday night. A few tornadoes are also possible across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.

Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands.