As a deluge of rain and strong winds have battered the islands this summer, Maui County has seen at least one side benefit — far fewer brush fires. 

From June 1 to Sept. 1, 2025, during one of the driest seasons Hawai‘i had seen in decades, the Maui Fire Department responded to 89 wildfires of various sizes. This year, MFD responded to 23 wildfires during the same time period, a decline of 74%.

“The rain has certainly decreased the fire risk in many areas,” Maui Fire Department spokesperson Chris Stankis told the Hawai‘i Journalism Initiative on Wednesday. “Unfortunately, we still have leeward areas that have not gotten as much rain, dry out very quickly when it is sunny, and remain dry overall, so the fire potential is still there.”

MFD has remained ready and alert this summer, Stankis said. Hurricanes can still bring the risk of dangerous fires. Two of West Maui’s most devastating blazes in the last decade — the 2023 wildfire that razed Lahaina town and the 2018 wildfire that burned homes in Kaua‘ula Valley — were stoked by high winds from passing hurricanes. 

“The winds continue to be a concern, as winds not only drive the intensity and spread of fires once they start, but elevated wind speeds increase the likelihood of power lines ending up on the ground, which creates a potential start hazard,” Stankis said.

Stankis pointed out that the department responds to more than just fires, including rescues, accidents and medical emergencies, and that the total number of calls the department sees increases every year.

While the risk is highest in the hot summer months, fire season in Hawai‘i technically lasts all year, and that was especially a concern last fall when the state was coming off its third-driest season in the last 30 years. Maui County saw lower-than-average rainfall from May to September of last year, and by autumn, more than 94% of the county was under some level of drought.

But between the two consecutive Kona low storms in March and multiple hurricanes and tropical storms this summer, rainfall across Hawai‘i has reached extreme levels. The first Kona low dumped as much as 62 inches of rain in some areas of Maui, according to the Hawai‘i Climate Data Portal. Last month was the second-wettest August in more than a century as Hurricane Lala and Tropical Storm Moke passed through the islands, according to the data portal’s monthly report.

Hurricane season in the Central Pacific has been extra busy this year. In May, forecasters predicted an above-normal season with five to 13 tropical cyclones from June to November. So far, there have been five named storms in the Central Pacific, the strongest of which was Hurricane Lowell, which sustained maximum winds of 140 mph and hit Kaua‘i hard earlier this week. 

The Eastern Pacific has been even more hectic, with 13 named storms so far, though not all have made it as far as the Hawaiian islands.  

“We’re still expecting a pretty active season, at least for the rest of the month,” Patrick Blood, meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Honolulu office, said Tuesday.

Blood said there’s “no definitive reason why it’s so active,” but signs point to warmer Eastern Pacific waters during the current El Niño climate pattern, which is characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds. Blood said this year’s El Niño “has been particularly strong.”

“It’s kind of a feeding ground … where storms can form easily, and once they form over those very warm waters of the Eastern Pacific, they tend to get steered west toward us,” Blood said.

Weaker trade winds also curb Hawai‘i’s ability to stop major storms. Usually, the islands are protected by the towering peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea on Hawai‘i island that disrupt the envelope of air as well as trade winds that create a strong wind shear that helps break storms apart, Blood explained. 

When those trade wind belts weaken, high-pressure storms will follow that path, which is why sometimes they’ll suddenly change direction just as Lowell did. Blood explained that the high-pressure area that was steering the hurricane toward the south weakened due to a trough, which is an area of low atmospheric pressure, allowing Lowell to take a sharp right turn towards Kaua‘i and Ni‘ihau.

Blood said there’s “a high chance” that this year’s conditions will morph into “a very strong El Niño,” sometimes referred to colloquially as a “super El Niño,” though Blood said scientists don’t use this term.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in mid-August that “El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.” From October to December, the center predicted “a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.” In August, sea surface temperatures had already gone up by over 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, an indication of a very strong El Niño.

A season of storms and heavy rainfall in concentrated periods has caused problems across the state such as flooding, sinkholes, agricultural losses and damage to critical infrastructure like Kula Hospital and the Nāhiku bridge. But it’s also eased the widespread drought the plagued the islands a year ago.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor as of Sept. 3, drought had lifted across most of the islands, with generally only leeward sides experiencing “abnormally dry” conditions, the lowest level of drought. In Maui County, abnormally dry conditions were reported in Central Maui and Central Moloka‘i.

Blood said he couldn’t speak to the level of fire risk this fall given what a rainy summer it’s been, but like Stankis, he pointed out that “the risk for wildfire remains regardless of the hurricanes.”