Nolo holds steady, expected to turn northward overnight

(Update: 11 p.m., Sept. 23, 2026) Tropical Storm Nolo will continue to slowly strengthen as it drifts
generally northward towards the Big Island. Nolo is expected to make a turn to the west Friday night, passing south of the Big Island Saturday.

Little change with the expected onset of conditions with the latest National Weather Service forecast. Damaging tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island as early as Friday morning, and dangerous hurricane force winds possible by Friday night. Hurricane or tropical storm watches may be needed for other islands should Nolo move closer to the islands.

Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms associated with Nolo will reach the Big Island as early as Thursday. Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to locally catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, mainly on windward and southeast Big Island, according to the NWS. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo are expected to reach the smaller islands, and will be enhanced by the terrain, particularly on Maui. Storm total rainfall amounts greater than 20 inches are possible on the Big Island, with localized amounts of 35 inches. On Maui, rainfall amounts greater than 10 inches are possible, with localized amounts of 20 inches, according to the NWS forecast.

Swell generated by Nolo could bring very large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents for south and southeast facing shores, especially for the Big Island.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Nolo, mainly over and near the Big Island, along and to the right of the track of the hurricane, the NWS reports.

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(Update: 5 p.m. HST Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026). Tropical Storm Nolo is holding steady and is expected to turn northward tonight. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaiʻi County, and is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds.

At 5 p.m. HST, the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located about 295 miles S of South Point on Hawaiʻi Island and 475 miles SSE of Honolulu, Oʻahu near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 155.9 West. Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph. A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected late tonight, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaiʻi on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting as early as Friday night.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Hawaiʻi County (1 to 3 ft).

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.