Tropical Depression 15-E forecast to near major hurricane strength as it nears Hawaiʻi Island late Friday or Saturday as Nolo

Tropical Depression 15-E is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it nears the Big Island of Hawaiʻi late Friday or Saturday as named cyclone, Nolo, according to the National Weather Service.

Trade winds will gradually strengthen statewide, and rainfall across Big Island will increase over the next couple of days as TD 15-E intensifies south of the Big Island. The system is forecast to move near the Big Island on Friday and Saturday as a hurricane, bringing potentially damaging winds and heavy flooding rainfall, according to the NWS.

While uncertainty in the track of the hurricane is higher than normal, the latest forecast calls for system to move westward late Saturday and Sunday, keeping some threat for significant impacts through the weekend.

The NWS forecast indicates that the system regained Tropical Depression status as it crossed into the central Pacific basin.

A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaiʻi on Friday and Saturday.

“That motion should take the cyclone near the Big Island of Hawaiʻi late Friday or on Saturday. Around that time, the upper low is expected to weaken and move westward, allowing mid-level ridging to become re-established to the north of the system. In response, the cyclone should turn and then accelerate westward,” according to the NWS.

Confidence in the details of the forecast track is low due to the complex steering evolution and significant model spread. Because of that, interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on Hawaiʻi Island, should closely monitor the system.

The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a couple of days and nearing major hurricane strength when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend.

WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

*Maui Now’s Wendy Osher contributed to this report.