West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 79. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 72 to 78. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 89. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 71 to 76. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 46 to 59. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 82. South winds up to 15 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 90. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows 60 to 79. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Showers will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity today. South-southeast winds continue today and then easterly trades build back in this weekend and into next week. This will be a drier trade wind pattern but windward and mauka showers should return in the overnight to early morning hours.

Discussion

Currently (3 AM HST), radar imagery showed showers, some heavy at times continuing over the eastern end of the state. The upper level low to our northwest that has been helping to bring rain to the state the past 24 hours, is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sunday before weakening moving off to the northeast early next week. With the low still nearby and not sufficiently weakened, showers remain in the forecast but decrease in coverage and intensity through Saturday.
A surface high will build to our northeast this weekend into early next week, bringing trades back to the region. A drier trade wind pattern sets up through at least midweek. Windward and mauka locations will see occasional showers as areas with slightly more moisture move through periodically. Models are hinting at one of these areas moving through Tuesday and Wednesday however at this point confidence remains low on exact timing and or any impacts.

Aviation

We briefly transition back into easterly trade winds today in a drier weather pattern lasting through the weekend. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for all islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain. In southerly winds, the favored areas are over and immediately northwest through northeast of island mountains. This AIRMET will also likely be cancelled later this morning.

Marine

A low pressure system to the northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will result in moderate to fresh south to southeast winds and enhanced showers across the state that will begin to wane today. Trade winds nose in from the east this weekend and early next week for the eastern portions of Hawaiian waters, but a trough will remain west of the area keeping winds fairly light across the western half of the state. The initial return of easterly winds may be in the fresh range tonight and Saturday but they become moderate or weaker Sunday into the rest of the week.
Moderate, long period south swell will produce surf along south-facing shores close to, but below, advisory level today. This swell will fade gradually through the weekend, but another long-period reinforcement is set to arrive on Saturday and peak Sunday into Monday. Surf will remain just below advisory levels along south-facing shores during this time before declining by the middle of next week.
Moderate surf is also expected along north and west facing shores as a medium-period swell produced by low pressure to the northwest of the islands peaks this afternoon into tonight, before declining through the weekend. A smaller long period northwest swell is also forecast to move through the islands this weekend and fade by the beginning of next week. A swell slightly larger than the present one will arrive on Monday and peak Tuesday, boosting north shore surf again but staying below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov