Maui Weather Forecast for October 17, 2026
West Side
Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows around 72. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.
North Shore
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Upcountry
Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 71. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs 67 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
East Maui
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.
Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Kaunakakai
Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny and windy. Highs 77 to 88. East winds 10 to 30 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A high pressure system will linger north of the Hawaiian Islands producing moderate to breezy trades through the middle of next week with minor fluctuations in speed. Brief pulses of enhanced showers will roll through on the trades during this time period, with showers favoring windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
Discussion
This mornings satellite imagery shows the first of three easterly waves continues to slowly drift through the islands enhancing shower activity through the early morning hours. Two additional weak atmospheric waves will drift from east to west across the islands on Saturday evening, and from late Sunday into Monday. Cloud and shower coverage will increase with each passing wave, favoring the overnight to early morning hours with the highest rainfall amounts falling over the windward mountain areas of each island. A wet trade wind pattern for sure with pulses of showers affecting each island through Monday.
A brief drying trend will develop by Tuesday as the last of the easterly waves passes to the west of the state. Subsidence aloft will lower temperature inversion heights with more stable trends reducing clouds and shower activity lasting through Wednesday. Expect the typical brief passing showers during the overnight hours over the windward mountain areas.
The long range forecast remains fairly uncertain as global models continue to struggle in finding a consistent solution with a passing short wave mid latitude trough passing just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The model solutions have flipped over the past few days with the American (GFS) model now showing a drier high pressure ridge setting up north of the island chain, and the European (ECMWF) model showing a cold core low, cut off from the mid latitude westerly winds, deepening just north of the state. The ECMWF solution would bring southeasterly to southerly winds over the islands, drawing up unstable tropical moisture from the deep tropics and triggering a period of wet weather across the islands. While the American GFS model shows more typical easterly trade wind weather with brief passing shower activity. Unfortunately these large scale differences are impossible to blend and we will have to wait a bit longer for our global weather model solutions to converge on a more consistent solution. Stay tuned for changes to the long range forecast.
Aviation
Moderate to breezy trades through the period. Low cigs and SHRA should impact windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for portions of all islands due to cld and SHRA. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb lee of terrain. Expect this continue for a few days.
Marine
High pressure north of the islands maintains fresh to strong trades well into next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island and has been expanded westward to the Kaiwi Channel beginning this morning. The SCA may need to be further expanded in areal coverage tonight as trades undergo modest strengthening.
A rather short period NNW swell peaked overnight in the 5 to 6 foot range and will bring seasonable surf to N shorelines. This swell will slowly decline and shift to the N during the weekend as a smaller overlapping NW swell moves through the area. Both swells lower on Monday and fade on Tuesday. Another small NW swell is possible next Thursday or Friday.
A declining small, medium period S swell will maintain below average surf along S shorelines through next week.
Surf along E shores increases this weekend as trades strengthen. In addition, expect some wrap of NNW swell for exposed shorelines through at least today. Rough trade wind swell will produce above average surf for E shores through Tuesday before declining with weakening trades mid-week.
Fire weather
Fire weather conditions will remain below critical fire thresholds into the first half of next week. Breezy winds and minimum humidity levels will not align to reach critical levels in any of our fire weather zones. The subsidence inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range from 9,000 to 10,000 feet elevation today.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
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