Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (11/03/14)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Click directly on the image to make it larger.**

Alerts
The SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is still posted for Maui County windward waters, the Pailolo Channel and Māʻalaea Bay until 6 p.m. Monday, Nov. 3, 2014. Rough seas are expected up to 10 feet. Winds are forecasted out of the east around 25 knots, with higher gusts. Inexperienced mariners are cautioned to avoid navigating in these conditions.

Today
Windward and mauka areas are forecasted to be mostly cloudy today with showers likely in the morning. Scattered showers are expected by the afternoon. For leeward spots scattered showers are expected throughout the day. A very slight chance of thunderstorm development exists for Maui County today. High temperatures should fall in the range of 84° to 89° with a high of about 69° at 5000 feet. Generally we expect east winds from 10 – 20 mph. On Lanai, in Wailuku, Kahului, Makawao and Hāna we could see gusts up to 30 or 35 mph.

Sunrise: 6:29 a.m.
Sunset: 5:49 p.m.
UV index at 8 (“very high” exposure level)

Tonight
Tonight we should get variable winds up to 15 mph. Scattered showers are expected for windward and mauka areas overnight with just isolated showers for leeward spots. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 71° to 76° with a low of about 53° at 5000 feet.

Moonrise: 3:42 p.m.
Moonset: 4:20 a.m.
Next Full Moon: Nov 6, 2014 at 12:23 p.m.
Next New Moon: Nov 22, 2014 at 2:33 a.m.

Looking Ahead
Trade winds are expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. The upper low that has been making our weather unstable should shift northward and weaken on Tuesday. By midweek trades should start filling back in. Another front is expected to affect us next week as well.

Surf & Seas
North: Surf is expected in the knee to chest high range. Mainly trade swell with north swell fading. Best breaks could see head high waves due to the trade swell.
West: Breaks that don’t catch the swells are forecasted to get smaller surf in the ankle high range. Spots that are open to the north swell should see waist to chest high waves, slowly easing in the afternoon.
South: Ankle-slappers to possibly thigh high surf is expected as the south-southwest swell eases.

Our north swell (350-360°) is fading through today. A new northwest swell (315-335°) is expected to peak in the waist to head high range Tuesday afternoon. This swell is expected to hold through the end of the work week. Another north-northwest swell (330-360°) is possible Wednesday, peaking overnight. Maybe an even bigger swell on the horizon for next weekend. Typhoon Nuri could possibly bring Maui County a swell around 11/11.

Our trade wind swell is expected to drop out over the next few days.

Our current south-southwest swell (200-180°) is expected to slowly fade out through the first half of this week. After that swell subsides, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Kahului Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 85°
Record 93° / Set in 1950

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 59° / Set in 1970

Surface map for Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Tides for Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected low temperatures in Maui County on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Weather conditions in Maui County at 7am on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Weather conditions in Maui County at 4pm on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 4pm on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Winds at 7am on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Winds at 4pm on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surf heights at 7am on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Swell 1 on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Swell 2 on Monday Nov. 3, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS