Fernanda Crosses into Central Pacific, Generates East Swell

Fernanda Impacts Begin with East Swell:

Tropical Storm Fernanda has crossed over into the Central Pacific and is beginning to affect the state in the form of high surf, generated by an east swell associated with the system.

There is currently a high surf advisory in effect for the East facing shores through 6 p.m. on Thursday, July 20, 2017 as a medium to long period easterly swell from Hurricane Fernanada produces advisory level surf along exposed shores.  Surf is expected to be in the 5-8 foot range in East Maui.

There is also a king tide event due to impact island shores beginning Friday, and lasting through the weekend. (See projected tides below). The highest predicted tides for the event on Maui are in Hāna where tides of 3 feet and higher are forecast for Saturday and Sunday between 3 and 4 p.m.

Fernanda Five-Day Forecast:

Fernanda Advisory #036. 2 p.m. PDT (11 a.m. HST) Thurs Jul 20, 2017. PC: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.

At 11 a.m. HST, on Thursday, July 20, 2017, the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at 18.2N 140.4W.

The system was located: 995 miles E of Bradshaw AAF; 965 miles E of Hilo; 1030 miles E of Kailua-Kona; 1000 miles E of South Point; 1030 miles ESE of Hāna; 1060 miles ESE of Kahului; 1100 miles ESE of Kaunakakai; 1090 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City; 1160 miles ESE of Honolulu; 1160 miles ESE of Joint Base PHH; 1290 miles ESE of Barking Sands; 1255 miles ESE of Līhue; 1300 miles ESE of Niʻihau; 1920 miles E of Johnston Atoll; 1970 miles SW of Las Vegas NV; and 2440 miles ESE of Midway.

Fernanda was last moving toward the west near 13 mph and had maximum sustained winds near 60 mph.

Fernanda Advisory #036. 2 p.m. PDT (11 a.m. HST) Thurs Jul 20, 2017. PC: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.

The cyclone is now forecast to become a depression by Friday, and a remnant low by Saturday.  Both of these events could occur earlier if convection does not redevelop, according to the National Hurricane Center. The new intensity forecast also now calls for the system to degenerate to a trough after 96 hours.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories for the system beginning at 5 p.m. today.

Fernanda Compounds Impacts of King Tide:

Authorities with the Maui Emergency Management Agency say waves generated by Fernanda are expected to lead to increasing surf along east facing shores the next couple of days, and this may lead to greater wave run-up along exposed windward coastlines.

The potential for coastal flooding will diminish early next week as the peak daily tides diminish.

The following are the daily high tide times at select locations across Maui County, which will correspond to the maximum coastal impact. The predictions are forecasts, but actual high tides may be greater than what has been projected:

Maui Now Graphic. Background image: King Tide at Olowalu (5.26.17) PC: Asa Ellison

Hāna, Maui:

2017/07/19 Wed 1:16 PM 2.46 H
2017/07/20 Thu 1:59 PM 2.75 H
2017/07/21 Fri 2:40 PM 2.96 H
2017/07/22 Sat 3:19 PM 3.05 H
2017/07/23 Sun 3:57 PM 3.05 H
2017/07/24 Mon 4:34 PM 2.96 H
2017/07/25 Tue 5:09 PM 2.79 H
2017/07/26 Wed 5:42 PM 2.57 H

Kahului, Maui:

2017/07/19 Wed 12:36 PM 2.35 H
2017/07/20 Thu 1:19 PM 2.62 H
2017/07/21 Fri 2:00 PM 2.81 H
2017/07/22 Sat 2:39 PM 2.91 H
2017/07/23 Sun 3:17 PM 2.91 H
2017/07/24 Mon 3:54 PM 2.82 H
2017/07/25 Tue 4:29 PM 2.66 H
2017/07/26 Wed 5:02 PM 2.44 H
2017/07/27 Thu 5:33 PM 2.21 H

Mākena, Maui:

2017/07/19 Wed 1:57 PM 1.71 H
2017/07/20 Thu 2:40 PM 1.92 H
2017/07/21 Fri 3:21 PM 2.05 H
2017/07/22 Sat 4:00 PM 2.12 H
2017/07/23 Sun 4:38 PM 2.12 H
2017/07/24 Mon 5:15 PM 2.06 H
2017/07/25 Tue 5:50 PM 1.94 H
2017/07/26 Wed 6:23 PM 1.78 H

Kaunakakai, Molokaʻi

2017/07/19 Wed 1:36 PM 2.40 H
2017/07/20 Thu 2:23 PM 2.60 H
2017/07/21 Fri 3:07 PM 2.73 H
2017/07/22 Sat 3:49 PM 2.77 H
2017/07/23 Sun 4:29 PM 2.74 H
2017/07/24 Mon 5:08 PM 2.62 H
2017/07/25 Tue 5:45 PM 2.44 H
2017/07/26 Wed 6:21 PM 2.20 H

Kamalapau, Lānaʻi

2017/07/19 Wed 1:38 PM 2.44 H
2017/07/20 Thu 2:25 PM 2.63 H
2017/07/21 Fri 3:10 PM 2.75 H
2017/07/22 Sat 3:53 PM 2.78 H
2017/07/23 Sun 4:36 PM 2.73 H
2017/07/24 Mon 5:17 PM 2.61 H
2017/07/25 Tue 5:58 PM 2.43 H
2017/07/26 Wed 6:38 PM 2.20 H