Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 83. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 78. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. East northeast wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind around 8 mph.

North Shore

Today: Sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 11 to 13 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind around 11 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 67. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. East wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 69. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph.

East Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny, with a high near 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. East northeast wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will spread across the region with high pressure north of the islands moving to the east today. Cool, dry air will continue, with just a few passing showers mainly over the windward and mauka areas. The weekend could see an uptick in showers along with another bout of light southeast winds ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front is expected to stall west of the area early next week.

Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast with the morning package. Dewpoints have dropped into the upper 40s in a couple reporting spots across the state, with most areas in the low to mid 50s. The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo showed 500 mb temperatures have warmed to -12 and -14C respectively, which is still colder than normal, but showing the warming trend at the mid levels that we would expect behind the upper trough that moved to the east of the islands overnight. Precipitable water (PW) values remain low, around .60 inches, and satellite derived PW shows that dry air will continue to move into the region for the next couple days. This will continue to limit rainfall totals.
High pressure to the north of Kauai will continue to move to the east over the next few days. Winds are starting to turn to a more trade wind direction, and we are expecting moderate trades to build in today, and then continue through much of Friday.
Moisture from the front that moved through the islands and is now to the east of the islands will likely get caught in the trades later this week. This could help to boost rainfall totals in the trade wind showers as we head into the weekend, but will likely play a larger role early next week. That’s when another front is expected to move towards the islands from the northwest. While at this time the models have the front stalling west of the islands, it would still cause our winds to lighten and veer to the southeast this weekend.
Heading into Tuesday, the global models show a trough developing over the islands, which combined with the moisture moving in from the east, could bring increased shower activity to the region.

Aviation

Moderate trade wind flow will become reestablished over the islands by this evening. Scattered light showers will favor north and northeast facing slopes and coasts. The air mass over the state will become increasingly dry and stable. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration along northeast slopes of the Big Island has been canceled.
Locally brisk winds through channeled areas and over higher terrain are to be expected today, especially over the eastern half of the state. AIRMET Tango for low level mechanical turbulence downstream of higher terrain from Oahu to Big Island remains in effect. Conditions are expected to gradually end from the west later today as winds weaken over the smaller islands.

Marine

A high pressure system moving from west to east, north of the region, will produce northeast to east trade winds through the rest of the week. Wind speeds will decrease into the moderate to locally fresh range through Friday as the high center moves slowly eastward away from the area. Wind directions will veer from the east to southeast by this weekend as a high pressure ridge moves in from the north.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was cancelled for western and windward coastal waters as seas are gradually lowering. The SCA will continue for windier sections of eastern coastal waters near Maui and the Big Island today. Trade winds speeds and seas will drop below SCA levels for all Hawaiian coastal waters by tonight. A large northwest swell arriving late Friday through Saturday will bring seas greater than 10 feet to many zones, leading to a reissuance of the SCA for most coastal waters.
The High Surf Advisory was cancelled this morning for north and west facing shores of the smaller islands as the current northwest swell has fallen and will remain below advisory thresholds through Thursday. A new larger northwest swell will arrive late Friday into Saturday with surf heights potentially reaching High Surf Warning levels along exposed north and west facing shores. A smaller pulse of northwest swell arriving Sunday should maintain advisory level surf conditions into Monday before diminishing Tuesday. No other significant swells are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov