Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming east northeast 11 to 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 89. Windy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Windy, with a northeast wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light east after midnight.

Thursday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a light east wind increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaiian Islands into next week producing moderate to breezy trade winds across the state. Stable conditions aloft will keep drier weather in the forecast today with only brief passing showers this morning. On Thursday and Friday a convergent cloud band just north of the state will drift over Niihau Kauai, Oahu and Molokai; enhancing shower activity over these western islands. This trade wind weather pattern will continue into the middle of next week with winds increasing to breezy levels this weekend. Brief passing showers will favor the windward and mountain areas, mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.

Discussion

The big picture weather pattern shows a high pressure system north of the islands producing stable trade winds across the region. A rapidly dissipating frontal boundary lingers just north of Kauai and Oahu. Two upper lows are located east and west of the island chain respectively, with a stable upper level ridge locked in place over the Hawaii region. In the short term forecast these weather features will produce stable moderate to locally breezy trade winds today. Increasing rainfall trends are expected to move in with the convergent cloud band on Thursday and Friday for the western islands.
On Thursday and Friday the weather pattern changes for the western half of the state. A convergent cloud band associated with the remnants of the old frontal system will drift into the western islands of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai; enhancing trade wind shower activity. Short range models continue to show this cloud band reaching the western side of Maui County with some enhanced showers on Thursday, and shower coverage was increased over Molokai to match the changing conditions. Windward and mountain slopes will see the higher rainfall amounts with lower rainfall coverage over leeward locations. Easterly trade winds will slowly push these clouds westward back into Niihau and Kauai on Friday with drying trends for Molokai and Oahu. The cloud band clears out west of Kauai by Friday night.
Saturday through Tuesday…Moderate to breezy trade winds continue with weak upper level troughs passing over the island chain. Expect brief passing showers mainly affecting windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

A moderate trade wind flow will persist over the next couple of days. Satellite shows more clouds immediately upstream of Maui County and the Big Island than the remaining islands. The trade wind flow will carry the clouds and showers to the windward slopes, with the Big Island seeing more clouds than most of the smaller islands, followed by Maui. VFR conditions will prevail with some isolated pockets of MVFR. Although winds have trended upward, not anticipating any issues with mechanical turbulence in the next few hours. An AIRMET for turbulence is more than likely later today with winds expected to trend upwards a bit more.

Marine

A front washing out across the far northern offshore waters as high pressure reestablishes itself north to northeast of the islands will allow for the return of areawide moderate trade winds for the remainder of the week. Trades will strengthen to more areawide fresh, locally strong around Maui County and the Big Island, the next several days. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Thursday afternoon to account for these windier channels and bays.
The current four to five foot, 10 to 14 second band 320-330 degree northwest swell moving around the islands is peaking north and west facing shore morning surf at above normal heights for early June. This swell will fall through late week with near flat north and west coast surf expected by Friday. Very small, long period southerly swells will maintain slightly below normal surf along southern exposures through the day. South shore surf may slightly pick up late in the week or this weekend with the arrival of a couple of overlapping slightly larger, long period south- southwest swells. East shore chop/surf may also pick up a touch as trades over and upstream of the state strengthen to more persistent fresh magnitudes late this week and into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov