Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. North wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming south 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northeast wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

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Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge will remain north of the state through the rest of the week with moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast into Friday. Weak disturbances aloft will keep brief passing showers in the forecast at least through Thursday, mainly affecting windward and mountain areas. The ridge appears to weaken from late Friday into the weekend with decreasing trends in our wind speeds.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning continues to show a large high pressure ridge north of the region with a low pressure system near the Dateline. Radar imagery shows brief passing showers are mainly affecting windward and mountain areas with only the strongest showers reaching some leeward sites. Rainfall amounts will remain light for most locations.
Short range weather models indicate weak mid level disturbances passing through the islands keeping a few showers in the forecast through Thursday. Weather model cross sections show the subsidence inversion, which limits vertical cloud development, ranging from 6000 to 8000 feet elevation through most of the week. This inversion height is high enough for brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas in trade wind flow. Drier conditions are forecast for leeward areas. Higher rainfall chances will occur in the typical overnight to early morning hours.
The high pressure ridge north of the state will weaken by late Friday due to this approaching front, and wind speeds will decrease into the light to moderate range by this weekend. Lighter winds in this range are expected during the overnight hours. The long range guidance keeps clouds and showers with this dissipated front too far north of the Hawaiian Islands limiting enhanced rainfall activity with this system.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will allow for moderate east northeast trade winds to persist through the remainder of this morning and into the afternoon. Thus, scattered showers will mainly be limited to windward slopes and coasts. This activity may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 8000 feet for southwest thru west of mountains due to tempo moderate turbulence.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will keep moderate to strong trades in place through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 PM Friday. This SCA will likely need to be expanded to include additional waters Tuesday through Thursday.
The current south-southwest swell will continue to fade out today, followed by mainly background southerly swells and below normal surf for south facing shores tonight through the upcoming weekend. Aside from a little trade wind swell wrap, surf along north facing shores will be flat through the upcoming weekend. The only notable surf during the next 7 days will be along east facing shores, where persistent moderate to strong trades will keep surf near the summertime average.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov