Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. East northeast wind around 7 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 95. Northeast wind around 8 mph.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East northeast wind around 7 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers. Sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 71. East northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 7 to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 74. East northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East wind 7 to 9 mph.

Tuesday: Scattered showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 74. East northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind 7 to 9 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weakening surface ridge north of the state will keep light to moderate trade winds and localized sea breezes over terrain sheltered leeward areas in the forecast through Friday. Drier trends remain from Monday onward due to a strong upper level ridge over the region. The ridge builds north of the state this weekend, increasing trade wind speeds into the moderate to locally breezy range.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak upper low between the islands of Kauai and Oahu, and a cold front stalling far north of the state breaking down the ridge near the islands. Fairly stable clouds are shown drifting towards the islands on weakening trade winds. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers drifting over the state producing limited rainfall amounts.
Weather conditions from Monday through Friday remain the same with light to moderate trade winds. These weaker large scale winds will allow local scale sea breezes to develop along terrain shelters leeward areas of each island. A strong high pressure ridge aloft, shown the the upper level streamlines, will keep the trade wind temperature inversion in the 5000 to 8000 foot range through the week. Temperature inversions at these heights will tend to cap cloud tops and limit shower coverage over all islands. Brief passing showers are still possible with fairly limited rainfall activity. The Kona coast may see extended evening showers from sunset until midnight due to on-shore winds converging with the down slope mountain breezes.
The high pressure ridge strengthens north of the island chain on Saturday with a return to moderate to locally breezy trade winds expected through next weekend. Long range forecast guidance differs on the strength of the ridge and the strength of the returning trades from Saturday into the first half of next week.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade wind flow will persist through twenty four hours and beyond. Ragged clouds and scattered showers will favor east and northeast facing slopes and coasts, especially in the late night and morning hours.
The weakness of the background flow will allow localized sea breezes to dominate along leeward coasts in the afternoon and early evening hours. Sea breezes will promote afternoon and evening cloudiness over west and southwest facing slopes and coasts, especially those of the Big Island.
The air mass over the state is expected to become increasingly stable by midweek due to a building upper level ridge. This will further limit shower activity. Isolated MVFR conditions are to be expected in passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period and beyond.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine

A surface ridge northwest of the area is producing gentle to locally fresh trade winds over Hawaii coastal waters. Winds over the coastal waters will weaken further over the next few days as the ridge shifts slowly southeast. Winds will strengthen again late in the weak as high pressure builds northeast of the area.
The current south swell producing surf above the advisory level will gradually subside through tomorrow. A couple more southern hemisphere swells will produce small surf along the south facing shores through the second half of the week. A new northwest swell will produce small surf along north and west facing shores through tomorrow with another small northwest swell expected Wednesday. Weak trade winds will maintain small surf along east facing shores through mid-week. Surf along east facing shores may increase a bit over the second half of the week as winds strengthen off California.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all south facing shores.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov