Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 74. Windy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 18 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers before noon. Sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. East wind 8 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong high pressure far north northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands will drive breezy to locally windy trade winds across local waters today. Winds will decrease slightly beginning Tuesday as the high weakens. Generally dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday. Expect an uptick in showers by the middle of the week, with rainfall favoring windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

The pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high far northeast of the state and equatorial low pressure is sufficiently steep to drive locally windy conditions across the islands today. Models show the high will weaken a bit Tuesday, resulting in a decrease in trade wind speeds Tuesday through Saturday. Satellite loop shows small patches of low clouds moving westward across local waters within trade flow. Cloud cover favors windward sections of the smaller islands. Windward and Kona sections of the Big Island continue to see broken to overcast low clouds as well. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers across the area, mainly across windward areas.
Rather stable conditions will continue over the next couple of days as upper ridging dominates. Dry weather will prevail with brief passing showers possible over windward and mauka areas. Upslope showers are possible over Kona slopes of the Big Island during afternoon and evening hours. Beginning Tuesday, a weak upper trough will move near the east end of the island chain, raising inversion heights. Showers may increase, especially for windward and mauka areas, and will be highly dependent on incoming moisture availability.

Aviation

Breezy to strong trade winds will persist through the day as robust high pressure remains far north of the state. Spotty shower activity will mainly affect windward and mauka sections on the individual isles. And as long as the fire in leeward Big Island persists near Waikoloa Village, smoky conditions with occasional MVFR visibilities will continue. VFR, however, will hold over most areas most of the time.
An AIRMET for low level turbulence to the lee of the mountains is in effect because of the strong trade winds. This AIRMET will likely be extended through tonight.

Marine

A strong high pressure system far northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will keep fresh to strong trade winds in the forecast through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will decrease in coverage this morning to include all eastern Hawaiian waters. By Tuesday, the SCA will decrease further covering only the typically windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island, and these SCA winds will linger through much of the week.
The rough, slightly elevated surf continues along east facing shores driven by the strong trade winds. Expect these slightly elevated surf heights along east facing shores to persist into Tuesday, before decreasing to near the summertime averages by Wednesday onward as the trade winds weaken slightly. Swell energy from the south to southeast direction will continue to keep south facing shores from going flat from Monday through mid-week. The forecast guidance shows a small south-southwest swell arriving next Friday, which may provide a small boost in surf heights along exposed south facing shores heading into next weekend. Expect nearly flat conditions along most north and west facing shores this week.

Fire weather

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist today due to strong and gusty trade winds and a rather dry and stable atmosphere. The Keetch Byram Drought Index at Honolulu will be just shy of the critical 600 mark during the next couple of days, but winds and daytime relative humidity will be at or very close to critical thresholds today. A slight drop in winds is expected by Tuesday, but dry leeward conditions will hold.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov