Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 64 to 70. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 61 to 73. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 89. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A light wind pattern will hold in place today through Wednesday, with showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon, and mainly dry conditions expected each night. More typical trade wind weather will return Thursday through Saturday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. The trades could become disrupted again by Sunday, with a sea breezes favoring shower development over the island interiors during the afternoon hours.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a southwest to northeast oriented trough of low pressure is located around 200 miles north- northeast of Hilo, while a 1029 mb high is centered around 1300 miles north of Honolulu. The trough is moving slowly westward early this morning and has weakened the trade winds to gentle levels. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across much of the state, with a few pockets of more extensive cloud cover near the Big Island and over windward sections of Oahu and Kauai. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward Oahu and Kauai, with very shower activity reaching land over Maui County and the Big Island. Main short term concerns revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
The trough of low pressure north-northeast of the state will track slowly westward during the next couple days, disrupting the trade wind flow across the island chain. The trades are expected to become disrupted by late morning, with light and variable winds featuring daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes expected this afternoon through Tuesday. Trade winds should begin to slowly return from east to west across the state on Wednesday as the trough shifts west of the islands and high pressure builds to the distant northeast. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds should then return Thursday through Saturday, with the trades possibly decreasing again by Sunday as the remnants of tropical cyclone Linda disrupt the gradient across the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, a few trade wind showers should continue to affect Oahu and Kauai this morning. A convective shower regime should take hold this afternoon through Wednesday, featuring the development of scattered showers over interior and mauka locations each afternoon. These showers will then fizzle out in the evening, followed by mainly dry conditions overnight. A more typical trade wind pattern should become re- established Wednesday night through Saturday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A sea breeze driven convective shower pattern will be possible again by Sunday, favoring shower development over the interior of the islands during the afternoon hours.

Aviation

Weakening trade winds will allow local scale land and sea breezes to become more dominant over the islands today. An upper level low drifting into the region from the northeast direction will decrease atmospheric stability allowing cloud heights to deepen. Converging sea breezes will cause clouds to build and showers to develop over each island during the afternoon to early evening hours. Diverging land breezes forming after sunset will cause clouds over island interiors to diminish through the early morning hours.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A surface trough passing north of the state the next few days will disrupt trade flow and ultimately weaken winds around the islands. The western movement of this trough should subtly veer light to gentle breezes east southeast in time through early Wednesday. Reestablishing east trade winds will strengthen by Thursday as the trough moves west of the chain.
South shore surf will be on the rise today with the arrival of an anticipated large, long period south swell. Offshore southern buoys are showing the high period frontrunners while the nearshore PacIOOS Barber’s Point buoy is registering rising swell within the higher energy bands. Several pulses within this swell will have this south shore surf event lasting through mid week. A High Surf Advisory will likely be in effect for south facing shores as early as this afternoon but certainly for peaking surf at or slightly above 10 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ongoing fairly low, moderate period northwest-west swell will be slowly declining through Tuesday. This will have north and west facing shore surf gradually falling through late Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will remain relatively small the next several days. Swell within the captured fetch from Hurricane Linda in the East Pacific might make it to the east facing shores of the eastern most islands as small, long period east swell by Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov