Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 67. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 83. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 64. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 65. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Generally dry and pleasant weather with light winds can be expected through most of the week. A few showers will be possible over windward slopes and coasts, mainly over the eastern islands during nights and mornings, with a few showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon. A weakening front may bring an increase in showers late Friday through Saturday night as it moves down the island chain, particularly for windward areas. Drier weather appears to build in behind the front for Sunday and next Monday, with minimal shower activity.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1024 mb high is centered around 1650 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge axis extending southwestward to a location near Kauai. Land breezes are present over the smaller islands, with light to moderate trades over unsheltered sections of the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances during the next few days.
The ridge of high pressure will remain nearly stationary near or just north of Kauai through Thursday, before settling southward over the islands Thursday night and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. This will keep light and variable winds in place featuring overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes for the western islands, with light to locally moderate trade winds prevailing over the eastern end of the state. The front is forecast to move southward into Kauai Friday night then push southward through the remainder of the island chain Saturday and Saturday night, while high pressure builds in north of the state. Light trade winds could make a return as early as Friday night, with moderate trades then filling in over the entire state over the weekend and holding in place through early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week. A few showers will be possible over the windward slopes and coasts during nights and mornings, mainly over the eastern end of the state, while a couple showers will be possible each afternoon over the island interiors. Shower coverage and intensity may be a bit higher on Friday over Kauai as some deeper moisture appears to move in here in advance of the front. As the front moves down the island chain Friday night through Saturday night, we should see an increase in shower coverage, particularly over windward slopes and coasts. Drier weather appears to build in behind the front for Sunday and next Monday, with minimal shower activity.

Aviation

The latest sfc obs, satellite and radar trends show some scattered low/middle lvl clds and spotty showers in the vicinity of the state early this morning, largely resulting from redirected flow around the Big Island. Otherwise, high pressure ridge in place and weakly organized surface wind pattern, will continue to reinforce diurnal sea and land breeze circulations through the TAF period, allowing for sea breeze cloud and shower development for interior sections and along slopes again this afternoon. The transition to land breeze development during the evening will help diminish showers and clouds. Overall, expect mainly VFR conditions to continue through tonight, however some MVFR cigs remain possible again this afternoon in heavier showers.
AIRMET Tango for a period of mod upper lvl turb will be issued during the scheduled morning AIRMET issuance, for the inter- island air routes and flight areas within 40nm of the Hawaiian Islands. Mod turb conditions are possible through this afternoon.

Marine

A weak surface ridge axis remains centered over the island chain. A couple of cold fronts moving down from the northwest this week will do little to the ridge in terms of movement. The result will be light and variable breezes over the western end of the state and light to moderate southeasterlies over eastern waters through Friday. The passage of a couple of large, west- northwest swells may push combined seas above Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday and then again Friday evening through next weekend over exposed waters.
Buoy 51001, northwest of the state, has just now begun to rise with the new northwest (310 degrees) swell over the last couple of hours. The swell appears to be running later than guidance, so swell heights will likely rise locally later this afternoon through tonight, with a peak Wednesday. Surf generated by this swell is expected to reach High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands on Wednesday. With its slightly more westerly direction, this swell could push surf near or above the 8 foot HSA criteria along west facing shores of the Big Island later Wednesday. This swell will gradually lower Thursday before the initial forerunners from a larger northwest swell arrive early Friday. This swell is expected to rise rapidly, with resulting surf likely exceeding High Surf Warning (HSW) thresholds along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands from as early as Friday afternoon, but most likely that evening. An HSA will likely be required for the west facing shores of Big Island Friday night as well, with a possible HSW by early Saturday morning.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov